Rennes Vs Lyon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Rennes and Lyon for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.63 3.62 2.59 1.64 2.33
Estim 1.95 3.92 4.31 2.02 1.98
Value % 13.26 -2.11 -15.41 -11.47 7.59



Basic Data and latest results


Rennes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 2 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 2 1
At Home 4 1 1 72 5 2 1 5




Rennes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Troyes A 2 2 D O Gg
24 Oct Strasbourg H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Oct Metz A 3 0 W O Ng
03 Oct Paris SG H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Bordeaux A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Clermont H 6 0 W O Ng
19 Sep Marseille A 0 2 L U Ng
12 Sep Reims H 0 2 L U Ng



Lyon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 5 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 3 27 4 4 3 2




Lyon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Lens H 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Nice A 2 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Monaco H 2 0 W U Ng
03 Oct St Etienne A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Lorient H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Troyes H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Paris SG A 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Strasbourg H 3 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Rennes is 0.652 and for the Lyon is 0.362.
  • The home dynamic for the Rennes is 0.5 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lyon is -0.401.
  • The offensive ability for the Rennes is 1 and for the Lyon is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Rennes is 0.539 and for the Lyon is -0.513.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Rennes 20% 30% 29% 22%
Lyon 36% 36% 22% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.45 goals and Lyon to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.51 goals and Lyon to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Rennes to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 4
1 5.62 2-3 1.95
2 3.94 4+ 4.18
3 3.88 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.29 Un 1.5 4
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 2.01
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.18
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.36 3.47 3.47
2-3 goals 1.81 4.83 4.16
4+ goals 1.91 3.1 6.46
Ov 1.5 1.84 4.1 4.69
Un 1.5 2.36 3.47 3.47
Ov 2.5 1.63 6.45 4.32
Un 2.5 2.41 2.83 4.31
Ov 3.5 1.91 3.1 6.46
Un 3.5 1.96 4.28 3.91
Goal-Goal 2.25 2.8 5.03
No Goal 1.71 6.78 3.75
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.79 5.29 3.99
NG+Un 2.5 1.9 6.78 3.4



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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