Sampdoria Vs Bologna

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sampdoria and Bologna for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.41 3.51 2.9 1.69 2.21
Estim 2.35 3.66 3.32 1.9 2.11
Value % 1.06 -1.17 -4.36 -6.54 2.14



Basic Data and latest results


Sampdoria basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 5 6 6 0
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Home 1 2 3 28 4 6 5 1




Sampdoria latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Torino A 0 3 L O Ng
27 Oct Atalanta H 1 3 L O Gg
22 Oct Spezia H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Cagliari A 1 3 L O Gg
03 Oct Udinese H 3 3 D O Gg
26 Sep Juventus A 2 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Napoli H 0 4 L O Ng
19 Sep Empoli A 3 0 W O Ng



Bologna basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 2 1
At Away 0 2 3 13 3 4 3 2




Bologna latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Cagliari H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Oct Napoli A 0 3 L O Ng
23 Oct Milan H 2 4 L O Gg
17 Oct Udinese A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Lazio H 3 0 W O Ng
26 Sep Empoli A 2 4 L O Gg
21 Sep Genoa H 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Inter A 1 6 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sampdoria is -0.504 and for the Bologna is -0.181.
  • The home dynamic for the Sampdoria is -0.509 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bologna is -0.62.
  • The offensive ability for the Sampdoria is 0.518 and for the Bologna is 0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sampdoria is -1 and for the Bologna is -0.036.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sampdoria 29% 11% 46% 14%
Bologna 34% 24% 28% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.51 goals and Bologna to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sampdoria to score 1.45 goals and Bologna to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.9 0-1 4.76
1 9.17 2-3 2.02
2 3.79 4+ 3.36
3 4.35 Ov 1.5 1.26
4 5.68 Un 1.5 4.76
5 9.8 Ov 2.5 1.89
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2.11
Gg 2.15 Ov 3.5 3.36
NoG 1.86 Un 3.5 1.42


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 5.68 2.08 2.92
2-3 goals 1.56 19 3.25
4+ goals 3.97 2.04 3.87
Ov 1.5 2.03 4.6 3.46
Un 1.5 5.68 2.08 2.92
Ov 2.5 2.25 3.62 3.59
Un 2.5 2.46 3.73 3.08
Ov 3.5 3.97 2.04 3.87
Un 3.5 1.99 5.54 3.14
Goal-Goal 2.5 2.7 4.35
No Goal 2.22 5.32 2.77
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.36 3.01 4.1
NG+Un 2.5 2.32 5.32 2.91



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *