St Etienne Vs Clermont

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between St Etienne and Clermont for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.5 3.2 2.8 1.8 2
Estim 2.04 3.97 3.88 2.2 1.83
Value % 9.02 -6.06 -9.94 -10.1 4.64



Basic Data and latest results


St Etienne basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 5 6 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Home 0 4 2 22 5 6 3 3




St Etienne latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Metz A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Oct Angers H 2 2 D O Gg
17 Oct Strasbourg A 1 5 L O Gg
03 Oct Lyon H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Nice H 0 3 L O Ng
22 Sep Monaco A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Bordeaux H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Montpellier A 0 2 L U Ng



Clermont basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 3 28 4 5 4 2




Clermont latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Marseille H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Nantes A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Lille H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Lorient A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Monaco H 1 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Rennes A 0 6 L O Ng
19 Sep Brest H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Paris SG A 0 4 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the St Etienne is -0.459 and for the Clermont is -0.586.
  • The home dynamic for the St Etienne is -0.535 and the dynamic as a guest for the Clermont is -0.392.
  • The offensive ability for the St Etienne is 0.636 and for the Clermont is 0.067.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the St Etienne is -1 and for the Clermont is -0.513.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
St Etienne 26% 22% 40% 12%
Clermont 38% 36% 15% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.38 goals and Clermont to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.39 goals and Clermont to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team St Etienne to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.1 0-1 3.61
1 5.62 2-3 1.92
2 3.7 4+ 4.98
3 3.97 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 7.81 Un 1.5 3.61
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.21
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.83
Gg 2.19 Ov 3.5 4.98
NoG 1.84 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.34 2.8 2.92
2-3 goals 1.52 6.61 5.22
4+ goals 3.14 2.72 3.19
Ov 1.5 1.78 4.73 4.44
Un 1.5 3.34 2.8 2.92
Ov 2.5 1.77 6.12 3.68
Un 2.5 2.34 3.07 4.05
Ov 3.5 3.14 2.72 3.19
Un 3.5 1.88 4.49 4.1
Goal-Goal 2.2 2.99 4.76
No Goal 1.93 5.48 3.35
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.82 5.11 3.94
NG+Un 2.5 2 5.48 3.47



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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