Stuttgart Vs Bielefeld

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Bielefeld for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.9 3.64 4.13 1.8 2.07
Estim 1.83 4.2 4.65 1.75 2.34
Value % 2.01 -3.66 -2.71 1.59 -5.57



Basic Data and latest results


Stuttgart basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Home 2 1 2 47 5 5 4 1




Stuttgart latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Augsburg A 1 4 L O Gg
24 Oct Union Berlin H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct M’gladbach A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Hoffenheim H 3 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Bochum A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Leverkusen H 1 3 L O Gg
12 Sep Ein Frankfurt A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Freiburg H 2 3 L O Gg



Bielefeld basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 2 17 3 4 1 3




Bielefeld latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Mainz H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Dortmund H 1 3 L O Gg
17 Oct Augsburg A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Leverkusen H 0 4 L O Ng
25 Sep Union Berlin A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Hoffenheim H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep M’gladbach A 1 3 L O Gg
28 Aug Ein Frankfurt H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Stuttgart is -0.17 and for the Bielefeld is -0.81.
  • The home dynamic for the Stuttgart is -0.14 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bielefeld is -0.468.
  • The offensive ability for the Stuttgart is 0.636 and for the Bielefeld is -0.244.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Stuttgart is -0.652 and for the Bielefeld is -0.617.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Stuttgart 16% 30% 20% 34%
Bielefeld 34% 37% 19% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.71 goals and Bielefeld to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.71 goals and Bielefeld to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.86 0-1 4.59
1 6.17 2-3 2.12
2 4.78 4+ 3.22
3 3.82 Ov 1.5 1.28
4 5.21 Un 1.5 4.59
5 11.9 Ov 2.5 1.75
6+ 28.57 Un 2.5 2.34
Gg 1.82 Ov 3.5 3.22
NoG 2.22 Un 3.5 1.45


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.14 3.89 3.63
2-3 goals 1.83 4.32 4.53
4+ goals 1.67 4.26 5.98
Ov 1.5 1.76 4.3 5.01
Un 1.5 2.14 3.89 3.63
Ov 2.5 1.53 7.85 4.58
Un 2.5 2.5 2.59 4.69
Ov 3.5 1.67 4.26 5.98
Un 3.5 1.91 4.18 4.2
Goal-Goal 2.12 3.02 5.09
No Goal 1.57 8.04 4.17
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.7 6.04 4.08
NG+Un 2.5 1.86 8.04 3.49



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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