Tenerife Vs Girona

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Tenerife and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.3 3.2 3.17 2.34 1.6
Estim 1.94 3.85 4.48 2.16 1.86
Value % 8.07 -5.28 -9.22 3.56 -8.74



Basic Data and latest results


Tenerife basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 1 2 1
At Home 3 1 2 56 4 3 3 3




Tenerife latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
04 Nov Ibiza A 0 0 D U Ng
01 Nov Burgos H 4 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Leganes A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Eibar H 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
10 Oct Amorebieta H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Huesca A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Almeria A 1 3 L O Gg



Girona basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 6 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 3 39 3 5 3 3




Girona latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
04 Nov Alcorcon H 3 1 W O Gg
31 Oct Fuenlabrada A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Oct Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
21 Oct Mirandes A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Huesca H 1 3 L O Gg
09 Oct Lugo A 0 1 L U Ng
04 Oct Almeria H 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Oviedo A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Tenerife is 0.185 and for the Girona is 0.293.
  • The home dynamic for the Tenerife is 0.061 and the dynamic as a guest for the Girona is -0.03.
  • The offensive ability for the Tenerife is 0.118 and for the Girona is 0.617.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Tenerife is -0.104 and for the Girona is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Tenerife 19% 34% 27% 20%
Girona 39% 36% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.21 goals and Girona to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.47 goals and Girona to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.51 0-1 3.61
1 4.93 2-3 1.96
2 3.82 4+ 4.69
3 4.02 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.61
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.69
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.08 3.74 3.96
2-3 goals 1.85 4.12 4.6
4+ goals 1.97 3.44 4.95
Ov 1.5 1.89 3.89 4.7
Un 1.5 2.08 3.74 3.96
Ov 2.5 1.64 7.45 3.88
Un 2.5 2.28 2.72 5.13
Ov 3.5 1.97 3.44 4.95
Un 3.5 1.93 3.98 4.35
Goal-Goal 2.43 2.66 4.71
No Goal 1.62 6.84 4.25
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.82 5.98 3.53
NG+Un 2.5 1.76 6.84 3.95



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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