Twente Vs Heracles

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Twente and Heracles for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.23 3.4 3.24 1.98 1.88
Estim 1.9 4.17 4.26 1.89 2.13
Value % 7.79 -5.43 -7.39 2.41 -6.24



Basic Data and latest results


Twente basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Home 2 2 1 53 5 4 2 3




Twente latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct PSV Eindhoven A 2 5 L O Gg
24 Oct Nijmegen H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Willem II H 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Groningen A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Heerenveen A 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep AZ Alkmaar H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Vitesse A 4 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Utrecht H 1 0 W U Ng



Heracles basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 2 1 2
At Away 0 1 3 8 3 4 2 2




Heracles latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Ajax H 0 0 D U Ng
23 Oct Zwolle A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Go Ahead Eagles A 2 4 L O Gg
02 Oct Willem II H 3 2 W O Gg
26 Sep Waalwijk H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Cambuur A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep AZ Alkmaar H 3 2 W O Gg
29 Aug Nijmegen H 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Twente is -0.096 and for the Heracles is -0.224.
  • The home dynamic for the Twente is 0.035 and the dynamic as a guest for the Heracles is -0.772.
  • The offensive ability for the Twente is 1 and for the Heracles is -0.067.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Twente is -1 and for the Heracles is -0.036.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Twente 22% 23% 31% 24%
Heracles 34% 39% 17% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Twente to score 1.41 goals and Heracles to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Twente to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Twente to score 1.58 goals and Heracles to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Twente to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 4.2
1 6.13 2-3 2.01
2 4.29 4+ 3.77
3 3.77 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 5.88 Un 1.5 4.2
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 1.89
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.12
Gg 1.94 Ov 3.5 3.77
NoG 2.06 Un 3.5 1.36


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.09 3.17 2.77
2-3 goals 1.6 5.6 5.08
4+ goals 1.92 3.49 5.2
Ov 1.5 1.7 4.62 5.12
Un 1.5 3.09 3.17 2.77
Ov 2.5 1.55 6.97 4.77
Un 2.5 2.57 2.87 3.8
Ov 3.5 1.92 3.49 5.2
Un 3.5 1.9 4.49 4
Goal-Goal 1.98 3.12 5.72
No Goal 1.83 6.48 3.35
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.64 5.61 4.73
NG+Un 2.5 2.09 6.48 3.08



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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