Valladolid Vs Mirandes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Valladolid and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.68 3.67 4.92 2.17 1.75
Estim 2.11 3.68 3.94 2.27 1.79
Value % -12.13 -0.07 5.06 -2.03 -1.28



Basic Data and latest results


Valladolid basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 4 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 2 1 61 5 3 0 6




Valladolid latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Amorebieta A 1 4 L O Gg
31 Oct Eibar H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Sp Gijon A 2 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Ibiza H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Leganes A 2 0 W U Ng
08 Oct Malaga H 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Ponferradina A 2 2 D O Gg
26 Sep Alcorcon H 2 0 W U Ng



Mirandes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 2 1
At Away 2 2 2 44 4 4 2 4




Mirandes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Lugo H 3 2 W O Gg
31 Oct Zaragoza A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Almeria H 1 4 L O Gg
21 Oct Girona H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Ibiza A 2 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Eibar H 3 3 D O Gg
03 Oct Burgos A 0 1 L U Ng
26 Sep Leganes H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Valladolid is 0.311 and for the Mirandes is 0.009.
  • The home dynamic for the Valladolid is 0.272 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mirandes is 0.08.
  • The offensive ability for the Valladolid is 1 and for the Mirandes is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Valladolid is -0.217 and for the Mirandes is -0.585.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Valladolid 23% 35% 26% 17%
Mirandes 37% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.59 goals and Mirandes to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.37 goals and Mirandes to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Valladolid to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.05 0-1 3.41
1 4.76 2-3 1.99
2 3.79 4+ 4.98
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.35 Un 1.5 3.41
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.27
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 2.05 Ov 3.5 4.98
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.31 3.53 3.53
2-3 goals 2 3.96 4.06
4+ goals 2.14 3.3 4.37
Ov 1.5 2.03 3.74 4.14
Un 1.5 2.31 3.53 3.53
Ov 2.5 1.75 7.21 3.44
Un 2.5 2.51 2.65 4.46
Ov 3.5 2.14 3.3 4.37
Un 3.5 2.1 3.79 3.85
Goal-Goal 2.58 2.6 4.4
No Goal 1.79 6.13 3.58
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.91 5.92 3.25
NG+Un 2.5 1.94 6.13 3.44



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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