Venezia Vs Roma

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Venezia and Roma for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 5.91 4.41 1.54 1.68 2.25
Estim 2.75 3.76 2.7 2.02 1.98
Value % 19.44 3.92 -27.9 -10.02 6.06



Basic Data and latest results


Venezia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 4 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 2 2 1
At Home 1 1 2 33 4 3 2 2




Venezia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Genoa A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Oct Salernitana H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Sassuolo A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Oct Fiorentina H 1 0 W U Ng
01 Oct Cagliari A 1 1 D U Gg
27 Sep Torino H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Milan A 0 2 L U Ng
19 Sep Spezia H 1 2 L O Gg



Roma basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Away 2 0 3 40 4 4 4 1




Roma latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Milan H 1 2 L O Gg
27 Oct Cagliari A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Napoli H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Juventus A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Empoli H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Lazio A 2 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Udinese H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Verona A 2 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Venezia is -0.2 and for the Roma is -0.198.
  • The home dynamic for the Venezia is -0.404 and the dynamic as a guest for the Roma is -0.165.
  • The offensive ability for the Venezia is 0.518 and for the Roma is 0.067.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Venezia is -0.157 and for the Roma is -0.098.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Venezia 28% 35% 22% 16%
Roma 29% 32% 23% 17%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 0.77 goals and Roma to score 2.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Roma to win by 1.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.25 goals and Roma to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.72
1 5.29 2-3 2.1
2 4.24 4+ 3.94
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.37 Un 1.5 3.72
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 38.46 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 3.94
NoG 2.05 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.66 3.36 3.06
2-3 goals 2.67 4.33 2.53
4+ goals 2.99 3.39 2.7
Ov 1.5 2.78 3.95 2.59
Un 1.5 2.66 3.36 3.06
Ov 2.5 2.47 6.59 2.26
Un 2.5 3.08 2.66 3.34
Ov 3.5 2.99 3.39 2.7
Un 3.5 2.67 3.92 2.7
Goal-Goal 3.32 2.77 2.96
No Goal 2.32 6.09 2.47
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.61 5.36 2.32
NG+Un 2.5 2.41 6.09 2.62



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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