Villarreal Vs Getafe

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Villarreal and Getafe for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.55 4.01 6.81 2.23 1.69
Estim 1.77 4.15 5.13 2.06 1.94
Value % -8.02 -0.84 4.81 3.7 -7.63



Basic Data and latest results


Villarreal basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 4 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 2 1 53 4 3 3 2




Villarreal latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Valencia A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Oct Cadiz H 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Ath Bilbao A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Osasuna H 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct Betis H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Real Madrid A 0 0 D U Ng
22 Sep Elche H 4 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Mallorca A 0 0 D U Ng



Getafe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 4 11 2 5 2 4




Getafe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Espanol H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Oct Granada A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Oct Celta H 0 3 L O Ng
16 Oct Levante A 0 0 D U Ng
03 Oct Sociedad H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Betis A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Sep Ath Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Vallecano A 0 3 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Villarreal is -0.385 and for the Getafe is -0.138.
  • The home dynamic for the Villarreal is 0.053 and the dynamic as a guest for the Getafe is -0.646.
  • The offensive ability for the Villarreal is 0.182 and for the Getafe is -0.316.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Villarreal is -0.33 and for the Getafe is -0.554.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Villarreal 18% 35% 17% 30%
Getafe 46% 31% 16% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.68 goals and Getafe to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Villarreal to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.58 goals and Getafe to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Villarreal to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.9 0-1 3.32
1 4.61 2-3 2.11
2 4.67 4+ 4.41
3 3.86 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 6.9 Un 1.5 3.32
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.06
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 2.26 Ov 3.5 4.41
NoG 1.79 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.88 3.58 5.28
2-3 goals 1.79 4.38 4.68
4+ goals 1.62 4.63 5.97
Ov 1.5 1.73 4.46 5.04
Un 1.5 1.88 3.58 5.28
Ov 2.5 1.48 9.92 4.46
Un 2.5 2.18 2.68 5.92
Ov 3.5 1.62 4.63 5.97
Un 3.5 1.83 4.03 4.9
Goal-Goal 2.32 2.82 4.66
No Goal 1.5 6.64 5.52
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.75 6.84 3.53
NG+Un 2.5 1.72 6.64 4.68



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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