Vitesse Vs Utrecht

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Vitesse and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.76 3.53 2.32 1.65 2.26
Estim 3.09 3.8 2.42 1.63 2.58
Value % -3.87 -2.01 -1.78 0.74 -5.49



Basic Data and latest results


Vitesse basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 1 1 3 27 4 5 4 1




Vitesse latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Heerenveen A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Go Ahead Eagles H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Nijmegen A 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Feyenoord H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep For Sittard H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Groningen A 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Twente H 1 4 L O Gg
12 Sep Waalwijk A 2 1 W O Gg



Utrecht basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 6 4 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Away 2 1 2 47 3 2 2 3




Utrecht latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Willem II H 5 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Heerenveen H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct AZ Alkmaar A 1 5 L O Gg
03 Oct Ajax A 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Zwolle H 5 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Nijmegen A 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Waalwijk H 2 2 D O Gg
11 Sep Twente A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Vitesse is 0.481 and for the Utrecht is 0.75.
  • The home dynamic for the Vitesse is -0.561 and the dynamic as a guest for the Utrecht is 0.055.
  • The offensive ability for the Vitesse is 1 and for the Utrecht is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Vitesse is -0.278 and for the Utrecht is -0.171.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Vitesse 23% 35% 20% 22%
Utrecht 15% 36% 27% 22%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.35 goals and Utrecht to score 1.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.41 goals and Utrecht to score 1.56 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 29.41 0-1 5.88
1 7.35 2-3 2.14
2 4.59 4+ 2.75
3 4.02 Ov 1.5 1.2
4 4.74 Un 1.5 5.88
5 9.71 Ov 2.5 1.63
6+ 20.41 Un 2.5 2.58
Gg 1.53 Ov 3.5 2.75
NoG 2.9 Un 3.5 1.57


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.21 5 2.05
2-3 goals 3.54 3.68 2.25
4+ goals 2.59 3.56 3
Ov 1.5 3.05 3.62 2.52
Un 1.5 3.21 5 2.05
Ov 2.5 2.52 6 2.29
Un 2.5 4.73 2.41 2.68
Ov 3.5 2.59 3.56 3
Un 3.5 3.44 3.96 2.19
Goal-Goal 3.12 2.86 3.03
No Goal 3 10.15 1.76
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.51 5.18 2.44
NG+Un 2.5 3.18 10.15 1.8



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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