Vizela Vs Estoril

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Vizela and Estoril for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.5 3.17 2.94 2.2 1.71
Estim 2.53 3.6 3.06 1.88 2.14
Value % -0.47 -3.77 -1.33 7.74 -11.75



Basic Data and latest results


Vizela basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 5 1 28 4 5 1 5
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 0 3
At Home 1 3 1 40 4 5 1 4




Vizela latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Famalicao A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Benfica H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Santa Clara H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Portimonense A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Pacos Ferreira H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Gil Vicente A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Boavista H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Aug Guimaraes A 0 4 L O Ng



Estoril basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 5 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 1 2
At Away 4 1 0 87 5 3 2 3




Estoril latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Benfica H 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Portimonense A 2 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Gil Vicente H 2 2 D O Gg
27 Sep Boavista A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Sp Lisbon H 0 1 L U Ng
13 Sep Tondela A 2 1 W O Gg
27 Aug Maritimo H 2 1 W O Gg
23 Aug Pacos Ferreira A 3 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Vizela is -0.185 and for the Estoril is 0.19.
  • The home dynamic for the Vizela is -0.211 and the dynamic as a guest for the Estoril is 0.916.
  • The offensive ability for the Vizela is 0.155 and for the Estoril is 0.585.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Vizela is -0.626 and for the Estoril is -0.482.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Vizela 23% 33% 24% 20%
Estoril 19% 56% -1% 25%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vizela to score 1.21 goals and Estoril to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vizela to score 1.41 goals and Estoril to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 22.22 0-1 4.18
1 5.15 2-3 2.18
2 4.37 4+ 3.32
3 4.35 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 5.21 Un 1.5 4.18
5 16.95 Ov 2.5 1.88
6+ 20 Un 2.5 2.14
Gg 1.62 Ov 3.5 3.32
NoG 2.63 Un 3.5 1.43


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.73 5.31 1.84
2-3 goals 2.09 2.48 8.5
4+ goals 2.71 6.27 2.12
Ov 1.5 2.3 3.26 3.88
Un 1.5 3.73 5.31 1.84
Ov 2.5 1.86 11.06 2.68
Un 2.5 4.25 2.03 3.66
Ov 3.5 2.71 6.27 2.12
Un 3.5 2.46 3.03 3.79
Goal-Goal 2.52 2.66 4.42
No Goal 2.55 8.44 2.04
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.76 9.04 3.1
NG+Un 2.5 2.57 8.44 2.21



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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