Volos NFC Vs Aris

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Volos NFC and Aris for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.18 3.23 2.27 2.14 1.71
Estim 3.06 3.24 2.75 2.73 1.58
Value % 1.23 -0.1 -7.69 -10.1 4.81



Basic Data and latest results


Volos NFC basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 5 1
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Home 3 0 1 75 4 3 4 0




Volos NFC latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Ionikos A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct AEK H 1 3 L O Gg
17 Oct PAOK A 4 4 D O Gg
02 Oct Asteras Tripolis H 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Panathinaikos A 1 5 L O Gg
23 Sep Atromitos H 3 0 W O Ng
19 Sep Apollon A 3 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Lamia H 2 1 W O Gg



Aris basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 0 2 50 3 3 2 2




Aris latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct AEK A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Panetolikos H 5 1 W O Gg
18 Oct Lamia A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Apollon H 0 0 D U Ng
27 Sep Atromitos A 3 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Panathinaikos H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Sep Ionikos A 0 1 L U Ng
13 Sep OFI Crete H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Volos NFC is -0.037 and for the Aris is 0.509.
  • The home dynamic for the Volos NFC is 0.342 and the dynamic as a guest for the Aris is 0.055.
  • The offensive ability for the Volos NFC is 1 and for the Aris is 0.554.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Volos NFC is -0.678 and for the Aris is 0.316.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Volos NFC 21% 60% 14% 5%
Aris 32% 33% 32% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.02 goals and Aris to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.02 goals and Aris to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 3.05
1 3.85 2-3 1.76
2 3.26 4+ 9.43
3 3.83 Ov 1.5 1.48
4 12.05 Un 1.5 3.05
5 47.62 Ov 2.5 2.72
6+ 500 Un 2.5 1.57
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 9.43
NoG 2.16 Un 3.5 1.12


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.73 4.82 4.69
2-3 goals 5.36 2.91 2.13
4+ goals 3.31 2.26 3.93
Ov 1.5 4.88 2.79 2.29
Un 1.5 1.73 4.82 4.69
Ov 2.5 3.9 7.81 1.62
Un 2.5 2.71 2.41 4.6
Ov 3.5 3.31 2.26 3.93
Un 3.5 3.03 3.41 2.66
Goal-Goal 6.9 2.22 2.47
No Goal 1.86 6.82 3.18
G-G+Ov 2.5 4.4 7.3 1.57
NG+Un 2.5 1.88 6.82 3.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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