West Ham Vs Liverpool

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between West Ham and Liverpool for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.62 4.11 1.73 1.49 2.62
Estim 4.24 4.1 1.93 1.92 2.09
Value % 1.94 0.06 -5.99 -15.03 9.68



Basic Data and latest results


West Ham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 6 4 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Home 2 1 2 47 5 4 4 1




West Ham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Aston Villa A 4 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Tottenham H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Oct Everton A 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Brentford H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Leeds A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Man United H 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Southampton A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Aug Crystal Palace H 2 2 D O Gg



Liverpool basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 6 3 6 0
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 3 0
At Away 4 1 0 87 5 1 5 0




Liverpool latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Brighton H 2 2 D O Gg
24 Oct Man United A 5 0 W O Ng
16 Oct Watford A 5 0 W O Ng
03 Oct Man City H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Brentford A 3 3 D O Gg
18 Sep Crystal Palace H 3 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Leeds A 3 0 W O Ng
28 Aug Chelsea H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the West Ham is 0.407 and for the Liverpool is 0.569.
  • The home dynamic for the West Ham is -0.158 and the dynamic as a guest for the Liverpool is 0.932.
  • The offensive ability for the West Ham is 1 and for the Liverpool is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the West Ham is -0.157 and for the Liverpool is 0.378.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
West Ham 38% 33% 15% 14%
Liverpool 19% 30% 26% 25%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.04 goals and Liverpool to score 2.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.18 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Ham to score 1.04 goals and Liverpool to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 4
1 5.62 2-3 2.08
2 4.39 4+ 3.72
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.17 Un 1.5 4
5 13.7 Ov 2.5 1.92
6+ 29.41 Un 2.5 2.09
Gg 2 Ov 3.5 3.72
NoG 2 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.1 3.47 2.14
2-3 goals 4.96 4.81 1.69
4+ goals 3.49 3.68 2.26
Ov 1.5 4.31 4.34 1.86
Un 1.5 4.1 3.47 2.14
Ov 2.5 3.55 7.15 1.73
Un 2.5 5.43 2.78 2.19
Ov 3.5 3.49 3.68 2.26
Un 3.5 4.63 4.25 1.82
Goal-Goal 4.11 2.9 2.43
No Goal 4.42 6.93 1.59
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.29 5.49 1.95
NG+Un 2.5 4.3 6.93 1.73



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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