Willem II Vs Sparta Rotterdam

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.17 3.51 3.25 1.9 1.96
Estim 1.71 4.52 5.13 1.76 2.32
Value % 12.4 -6.37 -11.28 4.19 -7.92



Basic Data and latest results


Willem II basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 6 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 1 2
At Home 3 1 1 67 4 4 3 2




Willem II latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Utrecht A 1 5 L O Gg
22 Oct For Sittard H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Twente A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Heracles A 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep PSV Eindhoven H 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Waalwijk A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Groningen H 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Nijmegen A 0 0 D U Ng



Sparta Rotterdam basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 6 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 0 3
At Away 0 1 4 7 2 5 2 3




Sparta Rotterdam latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Feyenoord H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Waalwijk A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Groningen H 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct PSV Eindhoven A 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Cambuur H 0 4 L O Ng
22 Sep Zwolle A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Sep Nijmegen H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep For Sittard H 3 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Willem II is -0.074 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.81.
  • The home dynamic for the Willem II is 0.351 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.823.
  • The offensive ability for the Willem II is 1 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Willem II is -1 and for the Sparta Rotterdam is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Willem II 18% 18% 35% 29%
Sparta Rotterdam 39% 33% 17% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.47 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Willem II to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.75 goals and Sparta Rotterdam to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team Willem II to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 4.9
1 7.58 2-3 1.98
2 4.41 4+ 3.45
3 3.58 Ov 1.5 1.26
4 5.71 Un 1.5 4.9
5 11.63 Ov 2.5 1.76
6+ 34.48 Un 2.5 2.32
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 3.45
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.41


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.87 2.83 3.34
2-3 goals 1.38 8.58 6.25
4+ goals 1.96 3.26 5.47
Ov 1.5 1.55 5.38 5.94
Un 1.5 2.87 2.83 3.34
Ov 2.5 1.51 6.39 5.58
Un 2.5 2.08 3.29 4.63
Ov 3.5 1.96 3.26 5.47
Un 3.5 1.62 5.42 5
Goal-Goal 1.88 3.34 5.89
No Goal 1.57 7.01 4.55
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.66 4.9 5.19
NG+Un 2.5 1.8 7.01 4



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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