Zaragoza Vs Sp Gijon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.4 2.95 3.11 2.53 1.49
Estim 2.36 3.53 3.41 2.42 1.71
Value % 0.71 -5.57 -2.83 1.8 -8.63



Basic Data and latest results


Zaragoza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 5 0 44 5 4 0 6
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 0 3
At Home 0 6 1 29 3 4 0 7




Zaragoza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
04 Nov Burgos A 1 0 W U Ng
31 Oct Mirandes H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Oct Girona A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Oct Ponferradina H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Malaga A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Oct Huesca H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Oviedo H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Lugo A 1 1 D U Gg



Sp Gijon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Away 1 4 2 33 5 6 2 5




Sp Gijon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Almeria H 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Lugo A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Valladolid H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Cartagena A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Alcorcon H 1 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Oviedo A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Amorebieta A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Malaga H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Zaragoza is 0.2 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.457.
  • The home dynamic for the Zaragoza is -0.289 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Gijon is -0.148.
  • The offensive ability for the Zaragoza is 0.664 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.005.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Zaragoza is -0.217 and for the Sp Gijon is -0.585.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Zaragoza 27% 35% 24% 13%
Sp Gijon 35% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.11 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.24 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.14
1 4.48 2-3 2.02
2 3.73 4+ 5.41
3 4.39 Ov 1.5 1.47
4 7.87 Un 1.5 3.14
5 21.28 Ov 2.5 2.42
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.71
Gg 2.11 Ov 3.5 5.41
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.56 3.35 3.21
2-3 goals 2.22 3.82 3.47
4+ goals 2.47 3.14 3.63
Ov 1.5 2.29 3.6 3.51
Un 1.5 2.56 3.35 3.21
Ov 2.5 1.95 7 2.91
Un 2.5 2.79 2.6 3.88
Ov 3.5 2.47 3.14 3.63
Un 3.5 2.35 3.62 3.36
Goal-Goal 2.87 2.5 3.97
No Goal 2.05 5.54 3.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 5.81 2.88
NG+Un 2.5 2.17 5.54 3.02



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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