AEK Vs Olympiakos

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between AEK and Olympiakos for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.14 3.31 2.26 1.99 1.85
Estim 2.63 3.33 3.12 2.34 1.75
Value % 6.18 -0.18 -12.2 -7.52 3.09



Basic Data and latest results


AEK basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 5 5 1
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 3 0
At Home 4 0 0 100 4 1 3 1




AEK latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Apollon A 2 2 D O Gg
31 Oct Aris H 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Volos NFC A 3 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Atromitos H 3 0 W O Ng
03 Oct Panetolikos A 3 1 W O Gg
26 Sep PAOK A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Sep Lamia H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep OFI Crete A 3 3 D O Gg



Olympiakos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 5 3 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1
At Away 4 0 0 100 4 3 3 1




Olympiakos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Ionikos H 1 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Panetolikos A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct PAOK H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Giannina A 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Panathinaikos H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Asteras Tripolis A 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Apollon H 4 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Lamia A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the AEK is 0.533 and for the Olympiakos is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the AEK is 0.92 and the dynamic as a guest for the Olympiakos is 1.
  • The offensive ability for the AEK is 0.604 and for the Olympiakos is 0.648.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the AEK is -0.631 and for the Olympiakos is 0.13.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
AEK 20% 47% 25% 8%
Olympiakos 31% 32% 32% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AEK to score 1.09 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AEK to score 1.2 goals and Olympiakos to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.62 0-1 3.61
1 4.69 2-3 1.78
2 3.38 4+ 6.17
3 3.77 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 8.06 Un 1.5 3.61
5 28.57 Ov 2.5 2.34
6+ 333.33 Un 2.5 1.75
Gg 1.83 Ov 3.5 6.17
NoG 2.21 Un 3.5 1.19


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.88 4.33 4.2
2-3 goals 3.07 3.69 2.48
4+ goals 3.24 1.93 5.79
Ov 1.5 3.1 3.06 2.85
Un 1.5 1.88 4.33 4.2
Ov 2.5 2.75 5.08 2.27
Un 2.5 2.55 2.65 4.34
Ov 3.5 3.24 1.93 5.79
Un 3.5 2.54 3.88 2.87
Goal-Goal 4.18 2.32 3.04
No Goal 1.82 7.08 3.24
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.02 4.7 2.19
NG+Un 2.5 1.87 7.08 3.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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