Angers Vs Lorient

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Angers and Lorient for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.9 3.5 4.36 2.15 1.75
Estim 1.86 4.07 4.63 1.95 2.05
Value % 1.13 -4 -1.34 4.77 -8.36



Basic Data and latest results


Angers basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 6 6 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Home 3 1 2 56 5 3 4 2




Angers latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Lille A 1 1 D U Gg
31 Oct Nice H 1 2 L O Gg
22 Oct St Etienne A 2 2 D O Gg
15 Oct Paris SG A 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct Metz H 3 2 W O Gg
26 Sep Troyes A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Marseille H 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Nantes H 1 4 L O Gg



Lorient basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 5 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 4 3 19 5 6 4 3




Lorient latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Brest H 1 2 L O Gg
31 Oct Strasbourg A 0 4 L O Ng
24 Oct Bordeaux H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Marseille A 1 4 L O Gg
03 Oct Clermont H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Lyon A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Nice H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Reims A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Angers is -0.2 and for the Lorient is -0.504.
  • The home dynamic for the Angers is 0.044 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lorient is -0.426.
  • The offensive ability for the Angers is 1 and for the Lorient is 0.559.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Angers is -1 and for the Lorient is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Angers 20% 24% 34% 22%
Lorient 36% 36% 21% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Angers to score 1.5 goals and Lorient to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Angers to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Angers to score 1.57 goals and Lorient to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Angers to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 4.29
1 6.25 2-3 1.92
2 3.92 4+ 4.03
3 3.76 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 6.02 Un 1.5 4.29
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 1.95
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 2.05
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 4.03
NoG 2.03 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.68 3.19 3.19
2-3 goals 1.59 5.99 4.87
4+ goals 2 2.85 6.7
Ov 1.5 1.71 4.42 5.34
Un 1.5 2.68 3.19 3.19
Ov 2.5 1.58 5.91 5.09
Un 2.5 2.3 3.05 4.21
Ov 3.5 2 2.85 6.7
Un 3.5 1.82 4.71 4.19
Goal-Goal 2.06 2.93 5.8
No Goal 1.7 6.74 3.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.71 4.86 4.81
NG+Un 2.5 1.89 6.74 3.46



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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