Aris Vs Giannina

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Aris and Giannina for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.56 3.6 6.46 2.48 1.54
Estim 1.71 4.12 5.78 2.23 1.81
Value % -5.62 -3.51 1.82 4.52 -9.69



Basic Data and latest results


Aris basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 2 0 67 2 1 1 3




Aris latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Volos NFC A 2 1 W O Gg
31 Oct AEK A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Panetolikos H 5 1 W O Gg
18 Oct Lamia A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Apollon H 0 0 D U Ng
27 Sep Atromitos A 3 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Panathinaikos H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Sep Ionikos A 0 1 L U Ng



Giannina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 1 42 2 2 0 4




Giannina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Panetolikos H 3 0 W O Ng
31 Oct Asteras Tripolis H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Apollon A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Olympiakos H 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct Atromitos A 1 1 D U Gg
27 Sep OFI Crete H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Sep Ionikos A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Panathinaikos H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Aris is 0.481 and for the Giannina is -0.064.
  • The home dynamic for the Aris is 0.442 and the dynamic as a guest for the Giannina is 0.004.
  • The offensive ability for the Aris is 0.572 and for the Giannina is 0.586.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Aris is -0.288 and for the Giannina is -0.539.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Aris 19% 32% 23% 26%
Giannina 50% 34% 4% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 1.52 goals and Giannina to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1.56 goals and Giannina to score 0.78 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.13
1 4.46 2-3 2.1
2 4.29 4+ 4.93
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.47
4 7.46 Un 1.5 3.13
5 26.32 Ov 2.5 2.24
6+ 32.26 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 2.48 Ov 3.5 4.93
NoG 1.68 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.99 3.36 4.98
2-3 goals 1.46 4.42 11.36
4+ goals 2.09 5.08 3.08
Ov 1.5 1.6 4.59 6.3
Un 1.5 1.99 3.36 4.98
Ov 2.5 1.46 11.17 4.43
Un 2.5 1.99 2.72 7.77
Ov 3.5 2.09 5.08 3.08
Un 3.5 1.63 3.92 7.51
Goal-Goal 2.28 2.72 5.17
No Goal 1.46 6.27 6.34
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.67 7.38 3.78
NG+Un 2.5 1.6 6.27 6.25



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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