Aston Villa Vs Brighton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Brighton for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.44 3.33 3.06 2.07 1.8
Estim 2.38 3.85 3.13 1.95 2.05
Value % 1.03 -4.06 -0.73 2.97 -6.78



Basic Data and latest results


Aston Villa basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 5 5 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 1 2 47 5 3 3 2




Aston Villa latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov Southampton A 0 1 L U Ng
31 Oct West Ham H 1 4 L O Gg
22 Oct Arsenal A 1 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Wolves H 2 3 L O Gg
03 Oct Tottenham A 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Man United A 1 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Everton H 3 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Chelsea A 0 3 L O Ng



Brighton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 5 1 28 4 4 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Away 2 3 0 60 4 3 2 3




Brighton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Newcastle H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Liverpool A 2 2 D O Gg
23 Oct Man City H 1 4 L O Gg
16 Oct Norwich A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Arsenal H 0 0 D U Ng
27 Sep Crystal Palace A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Leicester H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Brentford A 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Aston Villa is -0.726 and for the Brighton is -0.104.
  • The home dynamic for the Aston Villa is -0.155 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brighton is 0.404.
  • The offensive ability for the Aston Villa is 0.433 and for the Brighton is 0.269.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Aston Villa is -0.682 and for the Brighton is -0.278.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Aston Villa 26% 29% 27% 19%
Brighton 30% 35% 21% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.3 goals and Brighton to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.39 goals and Brighton to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.94
1 5.68 2-3 2.09
2 4.29 4+ 3.75
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.17 Un 1.5 3.94
5 12.82 Ov 2.5 1.95
6+ 37.04 Un 2.5 2.05
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.75
NoG 2.08 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.95 3.26 2.82
2-3 goals 2.08 4.83 3.21
4+ goals 2.57 3.22 3.34
Ov 1.5 2.23 4.09 3.25
Un 1.5 2.95 3.26 2.82
Ov 2.5 2.02 6.17 2.91
Un 2.5 2.92 2.75 3.41
Ov 3.5 2.57 3.22 3.34
Un 3.5 2.32 4.14 3.06
Goal-Goal 2.63 2.85 3.73
No Goal 2.16 6.17 2.67
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.13 5.05 3.01
NG+Un 2.5 2.32 6.17 2.71



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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