Ath Madrid Vs Osasuna

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Osasuna for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.44 4.5 9.03 2.11 1.79
Estim 1.91 3.98 4.42 2 2
Value % -17.09 2.9 11.55 2.61 -5.87



Basic Data and latest results


Ath Madrid basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 3 0
At Home 3 3 0 67 5 2 3 3




Ath Madrid latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Valencia A 3 3 D O Gg
31 Oct Betis H 3 0 W O Ng
28 Oct Levante A 2 2 D O Gg
24 Oct Sociedad H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Barcelona H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Alaves A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Getafe A 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Ath Bilbao H 0 0 D U Ng



Osasuna basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 3 4 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 0 2 0 3
At Away 4 1 1 72 4 4 3 3




Osasuna latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Sociedad H 0 2 L U Ng
30 Oct Sevilla A 0 2 L U Ng
27 Oct Real Madrid A 0 0 D U Ng
22 Oct Granada H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Villarreal A 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Vallecano H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Mallorca A 3 2 W O Gg
23 Sep Betis H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ath Madrid is 0.2 and for the Osasuna is -0.024.
  • The home dynamic for the Ath Madrid is 0.466 and the dynamic as a guest for the Osasuna is 0.487.
  • The offensive ability for the Ath Madrid is 0.604 and for the Osasuna is -0.322.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Madrid is -0.227 and for the Osasuna is -0.278.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ath Madrid 20% 32% 23% 25%
Osasuna 38% 36% 17% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.87 goals and Osasuna to score 0.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.55 goals and Osasuna to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.51 0-1 3.77
1 5.24 2-3 2.05
2 4.24 4+ 4.05
3 3.97 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.29 Un 1.5 3.77
5 15.38 Ov 2.5 2
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2
Gg 2.01 Ov 3.5 4.05
NoG 1.99 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.17 3.58 3.84
2-3 goals 1.83 4.28 4.56
4+ goals 1.84 3.92 4.94
Ov 1.5 1.83 4.15 4.68
Un 1.5 2.17 3.58 3.84
Ov 2.5 1.59 7.92 4.06
Un 2.5 2.39 2.66 4.86
Ov 3.5 1.84 3.92 4.94
Un 3.5 1.94 4.01 4.28
Goal-Goal 2.31 2.81 4.74
No Goal 1.64 6.78 4.15
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.78 6.1 3.66
NG+Un 2.5 1.84 6.78 3.76



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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