Atromitos Vs PAOK

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Atromitos and PAOK for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 6.12 3.95 1.53 1.96 1.87
Estim 3.92 3.55 2.16 2.99 1.5
Value % 9.17 2.85 -19.06 -17.58 13.19



Basic Data and latest results


Atromitos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Home 0 1 3 8 3 4 2 2




Atromitos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov OFI Crete A 0 2 L U Ng
31 Oct Lamia A 2 2 D O Gg
23 Oct Ionikos H 0 2 L U Ng
17 Oct AEK A 0 3 L O Ng
03 Oct Giannina H 1 1 D U Gg
27 Sep Aris H 1 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Volos NFC A 0 3 L O Ng
19 Sep Panetolikos H 1 2 L O Gg



PAOK basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 3 3 0
At Away 4 0 1 80 5 4 4 1




PAOK latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Panathinaikos A 3 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Apollon H 4 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Olympiakos A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Volos NFC H 4 4 D O Gg
03 Oct OFI Crete A 3 1 W O Gg
26 Sep AEK H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Panetolikos A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Asteras Tripolis A 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Atromitos is -0.667 and for the PAOK is 0.616.
  • The home dynamic for the Atromitos is -0.809 and the dynamic as a guest for the PAOK is 0.615.
  • The offensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.529 and for the PAOK is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Atromitos is -1 and for the PAOK is -0.678.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Atromitos 27% 79% -23% 17%
PAOK 31% 31% 28% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 0.68 goals and PAOK to score 1.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team PAOK to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 0.84 goals and PAOK to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2 goals in the game and the guest team PAOK to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.05 0-1 2.43
1 3.04 2-3 2.08
2 3.97 4+ 9.43
3 4.37 Ov 1.5 1.7
4 15.87 Un 1.5 2.43
5 37.04 Ov 2.5 2.99
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.51
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 9.43
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.12


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.69 4.96 4.85
2-3 goals -5.23 1.94 1.48
4+ goals 1.03 -2.12 2
Ov 1.5 53.36 2.96 1.55
Un 1.5 1.69 4.96 4.85
Ov 2.5 4.04 -6.7 1.11
Un 2.5 3.86 2.01 4.12
Ov 3.5 1.03 -2.12 2
Un 3.5 5.87 2.7 2.18
Goal-Goal 16.8 2.55 1.83
No Goal 2.2 5.96 2.65
G-G+Ov 2.5 8.53 -5.12 0.93
NG+Un 2.5 2.42 5.96 2.58



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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