Barcelona Vs Espanol

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Barcelona and Espanol for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.37 5.09 8.65 1.63 2.35
Estim 2 3.91 4.08 2.04 1.96
Value % -22.99 5.93 12.95 -12.33 8.47



Basic Data and latest results


Barcelona basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 6 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Home 4 2 1 67 7 6 5 2




Barcelona latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Celta A 3 3 D O Gg
30 Oct Alaves H 1 1 D U Gg
27 Oct Vallecano A 0 1 L U Ng
24 Oct Real Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Valencia H 3 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Ath Madrid A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Levante H 3 0 W O Ng
23 Sep Cadiz A 0 0 D U Ng



Espanol basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 0 3 3 17 3 5 3 3




Espanol latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Granada H 2 0 W U Ng
31 Oct Getafe A 1 2 L O Gg
26 Oct Ath Bilbao H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Elche A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Oct Cadiz H 2 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Real Madrid H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Sevilla A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Sep Alaves H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Barcelona is -0.319 and for the Espanol is 0.4.
  • The home dynamic for the Barcelona is 0.331 and the dynamic as a guest for the Espanol is -0.472.
  • The offensive ability for the Barcelona is 0.112 and for the Espanol is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Barcelona is -1 and for the Espanol is -0.191.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Barcelona 21% 33% 23% 23%
Espanol 37% 34% 18% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 2.33 goals and Espanol to score 0.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 1.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.49 goals and Espanol to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.68
1 5.15 2-3 2.06
2 4.2 4+ 4.12
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.45 Un 1.5 3.68
5 15.38 Ov 2.5 2.04
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.96
Gg 2.01 Ov 3.5 4.12
NoG 1.99 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.23 3.49 3.78
2-3 goals 1.91 4.29 4.11
4+ goals 1.99 3.68 4.42
Ov 1.5 1.94 4.07 4.21
Un 1.5 2.23 3.49 3.78
Ov 2.5 1.7 7.42 3.63
Un 2.5 2.44 2.67 4.64
Ov 3.5 1.99 3.68 4.42
Un 3.5 2.01 3.96 3.98
Goal-Goal 2.45 2.78 4.32
No Goal 1.71 6.45 3.87
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.89 5.82 3.34
NG+Un 2.5 1.9 6.45 3.61



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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