Barnet Vs Torquay

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Barnet and Torquay for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.02 3.5 2.13 1.71 2.08
Estim 2.74 3.68 2.75 2.02 1.98
Value % 3.38 -1.4 -10.58 -8.97 2.43



Basic Data and latest results


Barnet basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 6 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 2 3 38 3 6 4 3




Barnet latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Wealdstone A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Aldershot H 2 1 W O Gg
26 Oct Stockport A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Wrexham H 0 3 L O Ng
09 Oct Dover Athletic A 2 1 W O Gg
05 Oct King’s Lynn A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Halifax H 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Weymouth H 3 1 W O Gg



Torquay basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 3 3 29 5 7 3 4




Torquay latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Dover Athletic H 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Wrexham A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct King’s Lynn H 2 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Bromley A 0 2 L U Ng
05 Oct Boreham Wood A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Wealdstone H 5 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Chesterfield A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Southend H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Barnet is 0.148 and for the Torquay is 0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Barnet is -0.363 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torquay is -0.291.
  • The offensive ability for the Barnet is -0.037 and for the Torquay is 0.269.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Barnet is -1 and for the Torquay is -0.278.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Barnet 25% 37% 23% 15%
Torquay 27% 34% 24% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.2 goals and Torquay to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the guest team Torquay to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.27 goals and Torquay to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.49 0-1 3.89
1 5.32 2-3 2.03
2 4.02 4+ 4
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.29 Un 1.5 3.89
5 14.49 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.84 Ov 3.5 4
NoG 2.19 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.54 3.72 2.95
2-3 goals 2.75 3.85 2.65
4+ goals 2.94 3.29 2.81
Ov 1.5 2.81 3.64 2.7
Un 1.5 2.54 3.72 2.95
Ov 2.5 2.43 6.5 2.3
Un 2.5 3.12 2.57 3.44
Ov 3.5 2.94 3.29 2.81
Un 3.5 2.68 3.81 2.75
Goal-Goal 3.34 2.67 3.07
No Goal 2.26 6.61 2.46
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.55 5.47 2.35
NG+Un 2.5 2.33 6.61 2.57



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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