Bradford Vs Northampton

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bradford and Northampton for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.16 3.28 3.43 2.14 1.71
Estim 2.65 3.62 2.88 2.22 1.82
Value % -8.56 -2.86 5.57 -1.68 -3.53



Basic Data and latest results


Bradford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 1 2
At Home 3 4 1 54 8 7 4 4




Bradford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Port Vale A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Forest Green H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Swindon A 3 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Hartlepool H 1 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Bristol Rvs H 2 2 D O Gg
09 Oct Newport County A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Rochdale H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Crawley Town A 1 2 L O Gg



Northampton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 6 2 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 2 1
At Away 3 2 3 46 6 4 3 5




Northampton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Bristol Rvs A 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Carlisle H 3 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Tranmere A 2 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Stevenage H 3 0 W O Ng
16 Oct Mansfield H 2 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Hartlepool A 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct Sutton H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Salford A 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bradford is 0.015 and for the Northampton is 0.44.
  • The home dynamic for the Bradford is 0.307 and the dynamic as a guest for the Northampton is 0.177.
  • The offensive ability for the Bradford is 0.604 and for the Northampton is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bradford is -0.682 and for the Northampton is 0.565.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bradford 29% 33% 25% 13%
Northampton 30% 36% 22% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.35 goals and Northampton to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Bradford to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.21 goals and Northampton to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.24 0-1 3.4
1 4.88 2-3 2.04
2 3.91 4+ 4.65
3 4.26 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.09 Un 1.5 3.4
5 17.24 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 2.04 Ov 3.5 4.65
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.94 3.3 2.8
2-3 goals 2.42 4.2 2.87
4+ goals 2.87 3.07 3.07
Ov 1.5 2.54 3.78 2.93
Un 1.5 2.94 3.3 2.8
Ov 2.5 2.22 6.43 2.54
Un 2.5 3.14 2.67 3.25
Ov 3.5 2.87 3.07 3.07
Un 3.5 2.59 3.81 2.84
Goal-Goal 3.01 2.63 3.48
No Goal 2.37 5.72 2.48
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.29 5.34 2.65
NG+Un 2.5 2.47 5.72 2.56



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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