Brest Vs Lens

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Brest and Lens for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.23 3.52 2.25 1.84 2.03
Estim 2.19 3.89 3.5 2.23 1.81
Value % 14.7 -2.7 -15.87 -9.5 5.99



Basic Data and latest results


Brest basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 6 5 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Home 1 3 2 33 6 5 2 4




Brest latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Lorient A 2 1 W O Gg
31 Oct Monaco H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Lille A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Reims H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Nice A 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Metz H 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Nantes A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Clermont A 1 1 D U Gg



Lens basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 3 0
At Away 3 1 2 56 5 5 3 3




Lens latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov Troyes H 4 0 W O Ng
30 Oct Lyon A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Metz H 4 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Montpellier A 0 1 L U Ng
01 Oct Reims H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Marseille A 3 2 W O Gg
22 Sep Strasbourg H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Lille H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Brest is 0.096 and for the Lens is 0.416.
  • The home dynamic for the Brest is -0.211 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lens is 0.155.
  • The offensive ability for the Brest is 1 and for the Lens is 0.621.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Brest is -0.571 and for the Lens is -0.191.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Brest 28% 23% 38% 11%
Lens 36% 36% 15% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brest to score 1.15 goals and Lens to score 1.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the guest team Lens to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brest to score 1.32 goals and Lens to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.9 0-1 3.51
1 5.43 2-3 1.95
2 3.76 4+ 4.98
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.94 Un 1.5 3.51
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.23
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 2.17 Ov 3.5 4.98
NoG 1.85 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.39 2.82 2.85
2-3 goals 1.62 6.12 4.55
4+ goals 3.65 2.79 2.72
Ov 1.5 1.92 4.58 3.82
Un 1.5 3.39 2.82 2.85
Ov 2.5 1.93 6.24 3.12
Un 2.5 2.47 2.98 3.85
Ov 3.5 3.65 2.79 2.72
Un 3.5 1.99 4.32 3.75
Goal-Goal 2.37 2.95 4.18
No Goal 2.06 5.35 3.05
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.94 5.22 3.42
NG+Un 2.5 2.09 5.35 3.27



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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