Bristol City Vs Blackburn

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bristol City and Blackburn for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.06 3.46 2.3 1.81 2.04
Estim 2.82 3.72 2.66 2.09 1.92
Value % 2.78 -2.02 -5.88 -7.4 3.06



Basic Data and latest results


Bristol City basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 3 6 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 3 0
At Home 1 4 3 29 5 7 2 6




Bristol City latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Coventry A 2 3 L O Gg
02 Nov Birmingham A 0 3 L O Ng
30 Oct Barnsley H 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct West Brom A 0 3 L O Ng
19 Oct Nott’m Forest H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Bournemouth H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Peterboro A 3 2 W O Gg
29 Sep Millwall A 0 1 L U Ng



Blackburn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Away 2 3 3 38 6 7 4 4




Blackburn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Sheffield United H 3 1 W O Gg
03 Nov Fulham H 0 7 L O Ng
30 Oct Derby A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Reading H 2 0 W U Ng
19 Oct QPR A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Coventry H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Blackpool A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Huddersfield A 2 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bristol City is -0.652 and for the Blackburn is 0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Bristol City is -0.355 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackburn is -0.283.
  • The offensive ability for the Bristol City is -0.39 and for the Blackburn is 0.207.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bristol City is -1 and for the Blackburn is -0.626.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bristol City 29% 35% 21% 15%
Blackburn 28% 32% 27% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.19 goals and Blackburn to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.22 goals and Blackburn to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.2 0-1 3.66
1 5.24 2-3 2.04
2 4.03 4+ 4.18
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.62 Un 1.5 3.66
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 2.08
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.92
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 4.18
NoG 2.03 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.76 3.33 2.97
2-3 goals 2.92 4.41 2.32
4+ goals 2.72 3.14 3.19
Ov 1.5 2.85 3.9 2.55
Un 1.5 2.76 3.33 2.97
Ov 2.5 2.44 6.33 2.31
Un 2.5 3.3 2.7 3.06
Ov 3.5 2.72 3.14 3.19
Un 3.5 2.86 3.95 2.52
Goal-Goal 3.31 2.73 3.02
No Goal 2.45 6 2.35
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.59 5.25 2.36
NG+Un 2.5 2.59 6 2.41



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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