Burnley Vs Crystal Palace

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Burnley and Crystal Palace for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.85 3.22 2.67 2.21 1.71
Estim 2.16 4.13 3.39 1.81 2.23
Value % 11.21 -6.84 -7.95 10 -13.64



Basic Data and latest results


Burnley basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 2 1
At Home 1 2 2 33 3 4 2 3




Burnley latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Chelsea A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Brentford H 3 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Southampton A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Man City A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Norwich H 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Leicester A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Arsenal H 0 1 L U Ng
13 Sep Everton A 1 3 L O Gg



Crystal Palace basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 4 0 56 6 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Away 1 2 2 33 3 4 4 1




Crystal Palace latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Wolves H 2 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Man City A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Newcastle H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Oct Arsenal A 2 2 D O Gg
03 Oct Leicester H 2 2 D O Gg
27 Sep Brighton H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Liverpool A 0 3 L O Ng
11 Sep Tottenham H 3 0 W O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Burnley is 0.022 and for the Crystal Palace is 0.496.
  • The home dynamic for the Burnley is -0.219 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crystal Palace is -0.079.
  • The offensive ability for the Burnley is 0.112 and for the Crystal Palace is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Burnley is -0.657 and for the Crystal Palace is -0.104.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Burnley 26% 15% 44% 16%
Crystal Palace 30% 35% 21% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.12 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.49 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 4.69
1 7.41 2-3 1.99
2 4.26 4+ 3.51
3 3.75 Ov 1.5 1.27
4 6.02 Un 1.5 4.69
5 10.42 Ov 2.5 1.81
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.23
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.51
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.4


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.73 2.73 2.37
2-3 goals 1.52 9.84 4.15
4+ goals 3.24 2.52 3.39
Ov 1.5 1.88 4.8 3.84
Un 1.5 4.73 2.73 2.37
Ov 2.5 1.92 4.88 3.63
Un 2.5 2.55 3.47 3.13
Ov 3.5 3.24 2.52 3.39
Un 3.5 1.91 5.54 3.39
Goal-Goal 2.17 3.16 4.5
No Goal 2.15 6.18 2.68
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.95 4.13 4.06
NG+Un 2.5 2.26 6.18 2.78



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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