Cartagena Vs Burgos

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cartagena and Burgos for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2 3.2 3.98 2.35 1.6
Estim 1.89 3.89 4.67 2.15 1.87
Value % 2.91 -5.54 -3.71 3.96 -9.02



Basic Data and latest results


Cartagena basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Home 5 0 2 71 6 5 4 3




Cartagena latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
14 Nov Girona A 0 2 L U Ng
07 Nov Malaga H 3 1 W O Gg
02 Nov Leganes A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Ponferradina H 0 1 L U Ng
22 Oct Eibar A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Sp Gijon H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Amorebieta A 3 2 W O Gg
10 Oct Ibiza H 5 1 W O Gg



Burgos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 3 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 0 3
At Away 1 2 5 21 2 7 3 5




Burgos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
14 Nov Ponferradina H 1 0 W U Ng
07 Nov Almeria A 0 2 L U Ng
04 Nov Zaragoza H 0 1 L U Ng
01 Nov Tenerife A 0 4 L O Ng
24 Oct Huesca H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Oviedo A 3 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Lugo H 1 1 D U Gg
10 Oct Alcorcon A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cartagena is -0.185 and for the Burgos is 0.04.
  • The home dynamic for the Cartagena is 0.235 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burgos is -0.328.
  • The offensive ability for the Cartagena is -0.037 and for the Burgos is -0.233.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cartagena is -0.682 and for the Burgos is -0.539.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cartagena 18% 34% 27% 21%
Burgos 40% 36% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.34 goals and Burgos to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Cartagena to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.5 goals and Burgos to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Cartagena to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.65
1 4.98 2-3 1.96
2 3.85 4+ 4.61
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.85 Un 1.5 3.65
5 17.86 Ov 2.5 2.14
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.61
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.03 3.75 4.15
2-3 goals 1.81 4.15 4.87
4+ goals 1.94 3.5 5.05
Ov 1.5 1.84 3.94 4.92
Un 1.5 2.03 3.75 4.15
Ov 2.5 1.61 7.55 4.03
Un 2.5 2.23 2.72 5.45
Ov 3.5 1.94 3.5 5.05
Un 3.5 1.88 4.01 4.59
Goal-Goal 2.38 2.68 4.82
No Goal 1.57 6.93 4.56
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.79 6.02 3.62
NG+Un 2.5 1.71 6.93 4.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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