Charlton Vs Plymouth

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Charlton and Plymouth for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.47 3.42 2.78 1.88 1.96
Estim 2.82 3.61 2.72 2.11 1.9
Value % -5.02 -1.54 0.79 -5.8 1.61



Basic Data and latest results


Charlton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 6 3 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Home 2 3 4 33 7 6 5 4




Charlton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Burton A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Nov Rotherham H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Doncaster H 4 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Sunderland A 1 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Accrington H 2 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Lincoln A 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct Fleetwood Town A 2 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Bolton H 1 4 L O Gg



Plymouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 6 5 5 1
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Away 4 3 1 62 7 6 5 3




Plymouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Accrington A 4 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Ipswich H 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Morecambe A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Oct Bolton H 3 0 W O Ng
16 Oct Oxford A 3 1 W O Gg
09 Oct Burton H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Lincoln A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Sep Crewe H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Charlton is 0.244 and for the Plymouth is 0.976.
  • The home dynamic for the Charlton is -0.331 and the dynamic as a guest for the Plymouth is 0.343.
  • The offensive ability for the Charlton is 1 and for the Plymouth is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Charlton is 0.227 and for the Plymouth is -0.626.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Charlton 28% 35% 23% 14%
Plymouth 25% 37% 26% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.35 goals and Plymouth to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.23 goals and Plymouth to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.08 0-1 3.79
1 5.18 2-3 1.98
2 3.82 4+ 4.37
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.62 Un 1.5 3.79
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.11
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.9
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 4.37
NoG 2.17 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3 3.72 2.51
2-3 goals 2.86 3.86 2.56
4+ goals 2.57 3.01 3.58
Ov 1.5 2.76 3.55 2.81
Un 1.5 3 3.72 2.51
Ov 2.5 2.26 6.22 2.52
Un 2.5 3.63 2.6 2.94
Ov 3.5 2.57 3.01 3.58
Un 3.5 2.91 3.81 2.54
Goal-Goal 3.09 2.6 3.43
No Goal 2.56 6.49 2.2
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.34 5.36 2.59
NG+Un 2.5 2.72 6.49 2.21



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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