Cheltenham Vs Shrewsbury

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Shrewsbury for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.48 3.22 2.9 2.17 1.7
Estim 2.06 3.73 4.03 2.19 1.84
Value % 8.22 -4.25 -9.67 -0.42 -4.48



Basic Data and latest results


Cheltenham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Home 4 2 2 58 7 6 4 4




Cheltenham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Portsmouth A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Sheffield Weds H 2 2 D O Gg
23 Oct Doncaster A 2 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Morecambe H 3 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Accrington H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Rotherham H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Sep Sunderland A 0 5 L O Ng
25 Sep Wigan A 0 2 L U Ng



Shrewsbury basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 0 2 6 8 4 8 2 6




Shrewsbury latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Lincoln A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Cambridge H 4 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Oxford A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Oct Milton Keynes Dons H 1 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Ipswich A 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct Bolton A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Wycombe H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep AFC Wimbledon H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cheltenham is 0 and for the Shrewsbury is -0.04.
  • The home dynamic for the Cheltenham is 0.084 and the dynamic as a guest for the Shrewsbury is -0.736.
  • The offensive ability for the Cheltenham is 0.604 and for the Shrewsbury is 0.586.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cheltenham is -0.657 and for the Shrewsbury is -0.626.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cheltenham 19% 38% 25% 18%
Shrewsbury 37% 35% 18% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.22 goals and Shrewsbury to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.41 goals and Shrewsbury to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.89 0-1 3.56
1 4.78 2-3 1.98
2 3.82 4+ 4.69
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 7.04 Un 1.5 3.56
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.19
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.84
Gg 1.98 Ov 3.5 4.69
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.99 3.9 4.13
2-3 goals 2.03 3.8 4.11
4+ goals 2.27 3.44 3.74
Ov 1.5 2.09 3.68 3.99
Un 1.5 1.99 3.9 4.13
Ov 2.5 1.83 7.35 3.14
Un 2.5 2.31 2.65 5.27
Ov 3.5 2.27 3.44 3.74
Un 3.5 2.02 3.83 4.12
Goal-Goal 2.76 2.59 3.98
No Goal 1.64 6.86 4.08
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.03 6 2.93
NG+Un 2.5 1.74 6.86 3.98



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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