Clermont Vs Nice

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Clermont and Nice for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.4 3.35 2.1 1.87 1.92
Estim 2.65 3.55 2.94 2.5 1.67
Value % 8.32 -1.68 -13.61 -13.48 7.8



Basic Data and latest results


Clermont basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Home 2 2 2 44 5 4 2 4




Clermont latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov St Etienne A 2 3 L O Gg
31 Oct Marseille H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Nantes A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Lille H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Lorient A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Monaco H 1 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Rennes A 0 6 L O Ng
19 Sep Brest H 1 1 D U Gg



Nice basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 4 0 2 67 4 3 3 3




Nice latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Montpellier H 0 1 L U Ng
31 Oct Angers A 2 1 W O Gg
27 Oct Marseille H 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Lyon H 3 2 W O Gg
17 Oct Troyes A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Brest H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep St Etienne A 3 0 W O Ng
22 Sep Lorient A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Clermont is -0.533 and for the Nice is 0.224.
  • The home dynamic for the Clermont is -0.131 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nice is 0.374.
  • The offensive ability for the Clermont is 0.465 and for the Nice is 0.181.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Clermont is -0.631 and for the Nice is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Clermont 31% 36% 24% 9%
Nice 36% 36% 13% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Clermont to score 1.06 goals and Nice to score 1.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the guest team Nice to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Clermont to score 1.12 goals and Nice to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.17 0-1 2.89
1 4.22 2-3 2.15
2 3.95 4+ 5.35
3 4.69 Ov 1.5 1.53
4 8.26 Un 1.5 2.89
5 19.61 Ov 2.5 2.5
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.67
Gg 2.24 Ov 3.5 5.35
NoG 1.81 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.7 3.17 3.17
2-3 goals 2.27 3.67 3.48
4+ goals 4.25 4.07 1.93
Ov 1.5 2.62 3.77 2.83
Un 1.5 2.7 3.17 3.17
Ov 2.5 2.47 8.7 2.08
Un 2.5 2.79 2.54 4.05
Ov 3.5 4.25 4.07 1.93
Un 3.5 2.44 3.44 3.34
Goal-Goal 3.43 2.58 3.12
No Goal 2.24 5.07 2.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.45 6.93 2.23
NG+Un 2.5 2.2 5.07 3.19



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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