Dag And Red Vs Yeovil

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Yeovil for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.78 3.75 4.04 1.83 2.02
Estim 2.14 3.89 3.64 1.98 2.02
Value % -9.45 -0.96 2.72 -4.14 0



Basic Data and latest results


Dag and Red basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Home 4 2 1 67 7 6 7 0




Dag and Red latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Maidenhead A 4 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Chesterfield H 2 2 D O Gg
26 Oct Halifax A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Southend H 3 0 W O Ng
09 Oct Boreham Wood A 0 2 L U Ng
05 Oct Woking A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Altrincham H 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Solihull H 5 1 W O Gg



Yeovil basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 3 4 1 5
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 1 1 2
At Away 2 1 2 47 3 3 3 2




Yeovil latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Eastleigh H 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Solihull A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Oct Woking H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Grimsby A 0 2 L U Ng
12 Oct Altrincham H 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Notts County H 0 2 L U Ng
05 Oct Maidenhead H 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Boreham Wood A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Dag and Red is -0.096 and for the Yeovil is 0.16.
  • The home dynamic for the Dag and Red is 0.371 and the dynamic as a guest for the Yeovil is -0.004.
  • The offensive ability for the Dag and Red is -0.316 and for the Yeovil is -0.145.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Dag and Red is -0.631 and for the Yeovil is -0.157.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Dag and Red 24% 28% 25% 22%
Yeovil 33% 36% 21% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.71 goals and Yeovil to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Dag and Red to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.45 goals and Yeovil to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Dag and Red to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.83
1 5.52 2-3 2.07
2 4.26 4+ 3.89
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.17 Un 1.5 3.83
5 13.89 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.02
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 3.89
NoG 2.03 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.81 3.26 2.97
2-3 goals 1.95 4.74 3.63
4+ goals 2.02 3.43 4.67
Ov 1.5 1.97 4.18 3.94
Un 1.5 2.81 3.26 2.97
Ov 2.5 1.73 6.73 3.66
Un 2.5 2.82 2.73 3.59
Ov 3.5 2.02 3.43 4.67
Un 3.5 2.18 4.09 3.37
Goal-Goal 2.32 2.88 4.5
No Goal 1.98 6.15 3.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.86 5.43 3.6
NG+Un 2.5 2.24 6.15 2.86



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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