Derby Vs Bournemouth

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Derby and Bournemouth for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.67 3.46 1.82 2.27 1.67
Estim 3 3.64 2.55 2.23 1.81
Value % 11.92 -1.43 -15.73 0.79 -4.63



Basic Data and latest results


Derby basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 4 2 22 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Home 2 5 1 46 6 5 3 5




Derby latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Millwall A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Nov Barnsley A 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Blackburn H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Coventry A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Oct Luton H 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Preston A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Swansea H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Sep Reading H 1 0 W U Ng



Bournemouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 6 1 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 2 1
At Away 6 2 0 83 6 1 1 7




Bournemouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Swansea H 4 0 W O Ng
03 Nov Preston H 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Reading A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Huddersfield H 3 0 W O Ng
19 Oct Stoke A 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Bristol City A 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Sheffield United H 2 1 W O Gg
29 Sep Peterboro A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Derby is -0.356 and for the Bournemouth is 0.76.
  • The home dynamic for the Derby is 0.211 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bournemouth is 0.721.
  • The offensive ability for the Derby is 0.604 and for the Bournemouth is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Derby is -0.682 and for the Bournemouth is 0.913.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Derby 39% 28% 16% 17%
Bournemouth 34% 29% 19% 18%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 0.77 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the guest team Bournemouth to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.1 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.58 0-1 2.92
1 4.76 2-3 2.29
2 4.78 4+ 4.5
3 4.41 Ov 1.5 1.52
4 7.63 Un 1.5 2.92
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.23
6+ 32.26 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 2.48 Ov 3.5 4.5
NoG 1.68 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.6 2.59 2.97
2-3 goals 2.79 5.25 2.21
4+ goals 2.71 3.7 2.78
Ov 1.5 2.76 4.6 2.38
Un 1.5 3.6 2.59 2.97
Ov 2.5 2.43 7.48 2.2
Un 2.5 3.72 2.56 2.93
Ov 3.5 2.71 3.7 2.78
Un 3.5 3.1 3.62 2.49
Goal-Goal 3.16 2.83 3.04
No Goal 2.91 4.52 2.3
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.51 5.35 2.41
NG+Un 2.5 3.16 4.52 2.49



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *