Doncaster Vs Lincoln

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Doncaster and Lincoln for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.34 3.38 2.16 2.07 1.76
Estim 2.54 3.66 2.99 2.07 1.93
Value % 9.43 -2.26 -12.85 0 -5



Basic Data and latest results


Doncaster basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 6 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Home 3 2 2 52 5 5 3 4




Doncaster latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Crewe A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Charlton A 0 4 L O Ng
26 Oct Cambridge H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Cheltenham H 3 2 W O Gg
19 Oct Gillingham A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Wycombe H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Milton Keynes Dons H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Sep Ipswich A 0 6 L O Ng



Lincoln basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 1 2
At Away 3 2 3 46 6 8 4 4




Lincoln latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Shrewsbury H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Oct Wigan A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Sheffield Weds A 1 1 D U Gg
19 Oct AFC Wimbledon H 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Charlton H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Plymouth H 2 2 D O Gg
28 Sep Morecambe A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Burton A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Doncaster is -0.311 and for the Lincoln is 0.264.
  • The home dynamic for the Doncaster is 0.116 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lincoln is -0.057.
  • The offensive ability for the Doncaster is -0.358 and for the Lincoln is 0.621.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Doncaster is -1 and for the Lincoln is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Doncaster 26% 34% 24% 16%
Lincoln 28% 37% 24% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Doncaster to score 1.01 goals and Lincoln to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the guest team Lincoln to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Doncaster to score 1.3 goals and Lincoln to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.79
1 5.24 2-3 2.02
2 3.95 4+ 4.18
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.45 Un 1.5 3.79
5 15.15 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 1.88 Ov 3.5 4.18
NoG 2.14 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.78 3.62 2.75
2-3 goals 2.49 4 2.87
4+ goals 2.41 3.19 3.68
Ov 1.5 2.47 3.69 3.09
Un 1.5 2.78 3.62 2.75
Ov 2.5 2.08 6.43 2.75
Un 2.5 3.21 2.62 3.25
Ov 3.5 2.41 3.19 3.68
Un 3.5 2.59 3.86 2.83
Goal-Goal 2.85 2.67 3.64
No Goal 2.26 6.41 2.49
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.19 5.43 2.79
NG+Un 2.5 2.44 6.41 2.47



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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