Eastleigh Vs Notts County

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Notts County for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.1 3.42 2.15 1.88 1.92
Estim 2.95 3.65 2.58 2.02 1.98
Value % 1.64 -1.84 -7.75 -3.69 -1.58



Basic Data and latest results


Eastleigh basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 1 2
At Home 4 2 1 67 6 6 4 3




Eastleigh latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Yeovil A 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Maidenhead H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Oct Chesterfield A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Altrincham H 2 1 W O Gg
09 Oct Wealdstone A 2 1 W O Gg
05 Oct Southend A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Boreham Wood H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Woking H 3 2 W O Gg



Notts County basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Away 3 2 2 52 6 4 2 5




Notts County latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Solihull H 2 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Grimsby A 1 0 W U Ng
26 Oct Bromley H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Stockport H 2 1 W O Gg
09 Oct Yeovil A 2 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Halifax A 2 3 L O Gg
02 Oct Woking H 1 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Altrincham A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Eastleigh is -0.015 and for the Notts County is 0.68.
  • The home dynamic for the Eastleigh is 0.291 and the dynamic as a guest for the Notts County is 0.215.
  • The offensive ability for the Eastleigh is 0.112 and for the Notts County is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Eastleigh is -0.571 and for the Notts County is 0.243.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Eastleigh 26% 40% 22% 13%
Notts County 26% 34% 24% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.11 goals and Notts County to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the guest team Notts County to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.22 goals and Notts County to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.38 0-1 3.97
1 5.35 2-3 2.01
2 3.97 4+ 4
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.17 Un 1.5 3.97
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 47.62 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 1.8 Ov 3.5 4
NoG 2.26 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.5 3.88 2.93
2-3 goals 3.07 3.68 2.48
4+ goals 3.29 3.38 2.5
Ov 1.5 3.14 3.57 2.49
Un 1.5 2.5 3.88 2.93
Ov 2.5 2.7 6.69 2.08
Un 2.5 3.23 2.52 3.41
Ov 3.5 3.29 3.38 2.5
Un 3.5 2.85 3.74 2.62
Goal-Goal 3.71 2.66 2.82
No Goal 2.34 6.82 2.34
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.81 5.69 2.14
NG+Un 2.5 2.37 6.82 2.49



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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