Exeter Vs Carlisle

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Exeter and Carlisle for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.78 3.72 4.34 1.97 1.85
Estim 2.02 3.88 4.03 1.95 2.05
Value % -6.67 -1.11 1.77 0.52 -5.27



Basic Data and latest results


Exeter basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 6 6 0
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 3 3 0
At Home 4 4 0 67 6 5 5 3




Exeter latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Oldham H 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Salford A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Mansfield H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Crawley Town A 3 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Newport County H 2 2 D O Gg
09 Oct Stevenage A 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Walsall H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Hartlepool A 1 1 D U Gg



Carlisle basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 1 4 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 0 1 1 2
At Away 1 2 5 21 4 7 7 1




Carlisle latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Barrow H 0 0 D U Ng
30 Oct Northampton A 0 3 L O Ng
23 Oct Oldham H 0 0 D U Ng
19 Oct Newport County A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Tranmere H 0 1 L U Ng
09 Oct Bristol Rvs A 0 3 L O Ng
02 Oct Forest Green H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Sutton A 0 4 L O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Exeter is 0.719 and for the Carlisle is -0.424.
  • The home dynamic for the Exeter is 0.179 and the dynamic as a guest for the Carlisle is -0.389.
  • The offensive ability for the Exeter is 1 and for the Carlisle is -1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Exeter is -1 and for the Carlisle is -0.13.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Exeter 19% 32% 27% 22%
Carlisle 33% 37% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.63 goals and Carlisle to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Exeter to score 1.51 goals and Carlisle to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Exeter to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.87 0-1 4.17
1 5.65 2-3 1.98
2 4.02 4+ 3.91
3 3.91 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 6.02 Un 1.5 4.17
5 14.29 Ov 2.5 1.95
6+ 50 Un 2.5 2.04
Gg 1.85 Ov 3.5 3.91
NoG 2.18 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.26 3.81 3.38
2-3 goals 1.91 4.24 4.14
4+ goals 2.06 3.37 4.57
Ov 1.5 1.96 3.9 4.28
Un 1.5 2.26 3.81 3.38
Ov 2.5 1.72 6.74 3.68
Un 2.5 2.48 2.69 4.45
Ov 3.5 2.06 3.37 4.57
Un 3.5 2.01 4.09 3.86
Goal-Goal 2.4 2.78 4.48
No Goal 1.71 7.29 3.59
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.87 5.57 3.5
NG+Un 2.5 1.88 7.29 3.36



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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