Fiorentina Vs Milan

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Fiorentina and Milan for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.25 3.53 2.23 1.85 2.03
Estim 2.59 3.69 2.91 2.06 1.94
Value % 7.84 -1.23 -10.48 -5.51 2.29



Basic Data and latest results


Fiorentina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 3 4 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 1 2
At Home 3 0 2 60 5 3 5 0




Fiorentina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Juventus A 0 1 L U Ng
31 Oct Spezia H 3 0 W O Ng
27 Oct Lazio A 0 1 L U Ng
24 Oct Cagliari H 3 0 W O Ng
18 Oct Venezia A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Napoli H 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Udinese A 1 0 W U Ng
21 Sep Inter H 1 3 L O Gg



Milan basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 6 5 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Away 5 1 0 89 6 5 4 2




Milan latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Inter H 1 1 D U Gg
31 Oct Roma A 2 1 W O Gg
26 Oct Torino H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Bologna A 4 2 W O Gg
16 Oct Verona H 3 2 W O Gg
03 Oct Atalanta A 3 2 W O Gg
25 Sep Spezia A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Venezia H 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Fiorentina is -0.311 and for the Milan is 0.944.
  • The home dynamic for the Fiorentina is 0.163 and the dynamic as a guest for the Milan is 0.925.
  • The offensive ability for the Fiorentina is -0.497 and for the Milan is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Fiorentina is -0.202 and for the Milan is -0.591.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Fiorentina 30% 25% 31% 14%
Milan 35% 22% 29% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.14 goals and Milan to score 1.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the guest team Milan to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.28 goals and Milan to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.35 0-1 3.82
1 6.45 2-3 2.07
2 3.95 4+ 3.92
3 4.37 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.49 Un 1.5 3.82
5 12.2 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 52.63 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 2.22 Ov 3.5 3.92
NoG 1.82 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.98 2.45 3.91
2-3 goals 2.11 8.76 2.42
4+ goals 3.7 2.34 3.31
Ov 1.5 2.48 4.49 2.67
Un 1.5 2.98 2.45 3.91
Ov 2.5 2.6 4.44 2.56
Un 2.5 2.59 3.18 3.34
Ov 3.5 3.7 2.34 3.31
Un 3.5 2.35 4.59 2.8
Goal-Goal 3.26 2.74 3.04
No Goal 2.22 5.13 2.82
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.86 3.62 2.67
NG+Un 2.5 2.31 5.13 2.99



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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