Freiburg Vs Ein Frankfurt

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Freiburg and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.07 3.58 3.43 1.74 2.13
Estim 1.68 4.41 5.68 1.69 2.45
Value % 11.21 -5.26 -11.55 1.7 -6.13



Basic Data and latest results


Freiburg basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 4 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 2 0 73 5 4 3 2




Freiburg latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Bayern Munich A 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Greuther Furth H 3 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Wolfsburg A 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct RB Leipzig H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Hertha A 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Augsburg H 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Mainz A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep FC Koln H 1 1 D U Gg



Ein Frankfurt basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 2 2 2 44 5 6 3 3




Ein Frankfurt latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Greuther Furth A 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct RB Leipzig H 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Bochum A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Oct Hertha H 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct Bayern Munich A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep FC Koln H 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Wolfsburg A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Stuttgart H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Freiburg is 0.444 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.096.
  • The home dynamic for the Freiburg is 0.546 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.109.
  • The offensive ability for the Freiburg is 1 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.586.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Freiburg is -0.288 and for the Ein Frankfurt is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Freiburg 13% 27% 24% 36%
Ein Frankfurt 34% 41% 17% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.63 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Freiburg to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.82 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Freiburg to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 22.22 0-1 5.21
1 6.8 2-3 2.03
2 4.63 4+ 3.14
3 3.62 Ov 1.5 1.23
4 4.76 Un 1.5 5.21
5 12.5 Ov 2.5 1.68
6+ 35.71 Un 2.5 2.45
Gg 1.74 Ov 3.5 3.14
NoG 2.35 Un 3.5 1.46


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.09 4.27 3.49
2-3 goals 1.65 4.35 6.07
4+ goals 1.53 4.61 7.76
Ov 1.5 1.6 4.45 6.64
Un 1.5 2.09 4.27 3.49
Ov 2.5 1.39 8.61 6
Un 2.5 2.37 2.58 5.23
Ov 3.5 1.53 4.61 7.76
Un 3.5 1.75 4.33 5.03
Goal-Goal 1.88 3.16 6.55
No Goal 1.46 9.47 4.79
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.51 6.71 5.26
NG+Un 2.5 1.72 9.47 3.78



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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