Fulham Vs Barnsley

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Fulham and Barnsley for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.27 5.78 10.88 1.56 2.39
Estim 1.69 3.83 6.76 2.04 1.96
Value % -19.57 8.81 5.6 -15.08 9.18



Basic Data and latest results


Fulham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 6 0 0 100 6 1 4 2
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 0 2 1
At Home 6 1 1 79 8 4 5 3




Fulham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Peterboro A 1 0 W U Ng
03 Nov Blackburn A 7 0 W O Ng
30 Oct West Brom H 3 0 W O Ng
24 Oct Nott’m Forest A 4 0 W O Ng
20 Oct Cardiff H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct QPR H 4 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Coventry A 1 4 L O Gg
29 Sep Swansea H 3 1 W O Gg



Barnsley basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 3 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Away 0 3 5 12 4 8 3 5




Barnsley latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Hull H 0 2 L U Ng
03 Nov Derby H 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Bristol City A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Sheffield United H 2 3 L O Gg
20 Oct Middlesbrough A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Oct Reading A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Millwall H 0 1 L U Ng
29 Sep Nott’m Forest H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Fulham is 1 and for the Barnsley is -0.6.
  • The home dynamic for the Fulham is 0.339 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnsley is -0.517.
  • The offensive ability for the Fulham is 1 and for the Barnsley is -0.145.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Fulham is 1 and for the Barnsley is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Fulham 9% 42% 24% 25%
Barnsley 37% 42% 17% 3%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 2.5 goals and Barnsley to score 0.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team Fulham to win by 1.99 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.65 goals and Barnsley to score 0.86 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Fulham to win by 0.79 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 30.3 0-1 4.39
1 5.13 2-3 1.81
2 3.53 4+ 4.59
3 3.69 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 6.21 Un 1.5 4.39
5 20 Ov 2.5 2.04
6+ 142.86 Un 2.5 1.96
Gg 1.75 Ov 3.5 4.59
NoG 2.34 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.45 6.91 6
2-3 goals 1.95 3.09 6.09
4+ goals 1.46 4.45 10.9
Ov 1.5 1.78 3.39 6.95
Un 1.5 1.45 6.91 6
Ov 2.5 1.42 9.98 5.09
Un 2.5 2.08 2.41 9.64
Ov 3.5 1.46 4.45 10.9
Un 3.5 1.77 3.69 6.06
Goal-Goal 2.28 2.51 6.15
No Goal 1.26 12.97 7.64
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.57 8.02 4.23
NG+Un 2.5 1.35 12.97 6.26



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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