Getafe Vs Cadiz

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Getafe and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.02 3.2 4.4 2.77 1.43
Estim 2.41 3.72 3.16 1.94 2.07
Value % -8.01 -4.37 8.92 15.45 -21.62



Basic Data and latest results


Getafe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 4 22 3 6 3 3




Getafe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Villarreal A 0 1 L U Ng
31 Oct Espanol H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Oct Granada A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Oct Celta H 0 3 L O Ng
16 Oct Levante A 0 0 D U Ng
03 Oct Sociedad H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Betis A 0 2 L U Ng
21 Sep Ath Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg



Cadiz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 4 1 5
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 1 2
At Away 2 2 2 44 5 5 3 3




Cadiz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov Ath Bilbao A 1 0 W U Ng
31 Oct Mallorca H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Oct Villarreal A 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Alaves H 0 2 L U Ng
18 Oct Espanol A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Valencia H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Vallecano A 1 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Barcelona H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Getafe is -0.17 and for the Cadiz is -0.04.
  • The home dynamic for the Getafe is -0.538 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cadiz is 0.072.
  • The offensive ability for the Getafe is -0.465 and for the Cadiz is -0.057.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Getafe is -0.657 and for the Cadiz is -0.217.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Getafe 24% 32% 25% 19%
Cadiz 25% 41% 21% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.22 goals and Cadiz to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and the home team Getafe to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Getafe to score 1.4 goals and Cadiz to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.95 0-1 4.18
1 5.56 2-3 2.03
2 4.08 4+ 3.75
3 4.03 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 5.81 Un 1.5 4.18
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 1.94
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 2.07
Gg 1.75 Ov 3.5 3.75
NoG 2.33 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.91 4.05 2.44
2-3 goals 2.31 3.68 3.38
4+ goals 2.23 3.56 3.71
Ov 1.5 2.28 3.64 3.49
Un 1.5 2.91 4.05 2.44
Ov 2.5 1.9 6.87 3.05
Un 2.5 3.36 2.51 3.29
Ov 3.5 2.23 3.56 3.71
Un 3.5 2.48 3.79 3
Goal-Goal 2.57 2.73 4.1
No Goal 2.22 7.27 2.42
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.96 5.81 3.14
NG+Un 2.5 2.43 7.27 2.38



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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