Grimsby Vs Southend

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Grimsby and Southend for Conference (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.59 3.79 5.52 2.11 1.72
Estim 1.54 4.61 7.52 2.07 1.93
Value % 2.04 -4.69 -4.82 0.92 -6.33



Basic Data and latest results


Grimsby basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 4 2 4
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 1 2
At Home 6 0 1 86 6 3 3 4




Grimsby latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Aldershot A 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Notts County H 0 1 L U Ng
26 Oct Wealdstone A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Yeovil H 2 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Woking A 1 0 W U Ng
05 Oct Altrincham A 3 2 W O Gg
02 Oct Dover Athletic H 6 0 W O Ng
28 Sep Bromley A 1 3 L O Gg



Southend basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 2 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2
At Away 1 1 5 19 2 5 2 5




Southend latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Woking H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Nov Dover Athletic H 4 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Boreham Wood A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Dag and Red A 0 3 L O Ng
09 Oct Chesterfield H 0 4 L O Ng
05 Oct Eastleigh H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Solihull A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Torquay A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Grimsby is -0.111 and for the Southend is -0.304.
  • The home dynamic for the Grimsby is 0.849 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southend is -0.63.
  • The offensive ability for the Grimsby is -0.037 and for the Southend is -0.612.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Grimsby is -0.288 and for the Southend is -0.678.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Grimsby 16% 27% 28% 29%
Southend 49% 37% 10% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.66 goals and Southend to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Grimsby to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Grimsby to score 1.71 goals and Southend to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Grimsby to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.75
1 5.29 2-3 1.89
2 4 4+ 4.93
3 3.57 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.8 Un 1.5 3.75
5 23.26 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 2.33 Ov 3.5 4.93
NoG 1.75 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.05 3.42 4.53
2-3 goals 1.38 5.46 10.6
4+ goals 1.48 4.95 8.12
Ov 1.5 1.41 5.31 9.77
Un 1.5 2.05 3.42 4.53
Ov 2.5 1.26 11.78 8.19
Un 2.5 1.94 2.95 6.89
Ov 3.5 1.48 4.95 8.12
Un 3.5 1.55 4.55 7.31
Goal-Goal 1.79 3.12 8.27
No Goal 1.39 7.31 6.95
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.39 8.12 6.4
NG+Un 2.5 1.57 7.31 5.6



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *