Harrogate Vs Salford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Harrogate and Salford for League Two (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.43 3.32 2.93 2.12 1.76
Estim 2.21 3.65 3.65 2.1 1.91
Value % 4.1 -2.72 -6.73 0.45 -4.46



Basic Data and latest results


Harrogate basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 6 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 4 1 54 6 7 5 3




Harrogate latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Walsall A 3 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Bristol Rvs H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Hartlepool A 2 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Tranmere H 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Colchester A 0 1 L U Ng
09 Oct Scunthorpe H 6 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Oldham A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Stevenage H 0 0 D U Ng



Salford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 4 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 5 19 6 6 4 3




Salford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Scunthorpe A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Exeter H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Forest Green A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Rochdale H 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Hartlepool H 2 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Walsall A 1 2 L O Gg
02 Oct Colchester A 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Northampton H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Harrogate is -0.17 and for the Salford is -0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Harrogate is 0.315 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salford is -0.517.
  • The offensive ability for the Harrogate is 0.037 and for the Salford is 0.621.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Harrogate is -1 and for the Salford is -0.278.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Harrogate 20% 40% 20% 21%
Salford 33% 37% 20% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.26 goals and Salford to score 1.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.41 goals and Salford to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Harrogate to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.38 0-1 3.7
1 4.88 2-3 2.02
2 3.95 4+ 4.24
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.45 Un 1.5 3.7
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 2.1
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.91
Gg 1.86 Ov 3.5 4.24
NoG 2.17 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.06 4.15 3.65
2-3 goals 2.43 3.32 3.48
4+ goals 2 3.93 4.07
Ov 1.5 2.27 3.49 3.65
Un 1.5 2.06 4.15 3.65
Ov 2.5 1.86 7.95 2.98
Un 2.5 2.68 2.44 4.59
Ov 3.5 2 3.93 4.07
Un 3.5 2.29 3.57 3.54
Goal-Goal 2.84 2.58 3.85
No Goal 1.76 7.09 3.44
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 6.5 2.79
NG+Un 2.5 1.92 7.09 3.28



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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