Heracles Vs For Sittard

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Heracles and For Sittard for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.65 4.17 5.23 1.7 2.21
Estim 2.16 4.02 3.48 1.71 2.41
Value % -14.31 0.89 9.62 -0.34 -3.76



Basic Data and latest results


Heracles basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 4 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 0 2 0 3
At Home 3 1 2 56 3 4 2 4




Heracles latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
05 Nov Twente A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Ajax H 0 0 D U Ng
23 Oct Zwolle A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Go Ahead Eagles A 2 4 L O Gg
02 Oct Willem II H 3 2 W O Gg
26 Sep Waalwijk H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Cambuur A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep AZ Alkmaar H 3 2 W O Gg



For Sittard basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 6 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 3 13 4 5 2 3




For Sittard latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov PSV Eindhoven H 1 4 L O Gg
31 Oct Go Ahead Eagles A 3 4 L O Gg
22 Oct Willem II A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Cambuur H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Nijmegen H 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Vitesse A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Ajax H 0 5 L O Ng
18 Sep Heerenveen A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Heracles is -0.244 and for the For Sittard is -0.32.
  • The home dynamic for the Heracles is 0.179 and the dynamic as a guest for the For Sittard is -0.517.
  • The offensive ability for the Heracles is -0.604 and for the For Sittard is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Heracles is -0.253 and for the For Sittard is -0.626.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Heracles 20% 27% 26% 27%
For Sittard 28% 35% 22% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.97 goals and For Sittard to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.59 goals and For Sittard to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and the home team Heracles to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.54 0-1 4.9
1 6.8 2-3 2.15
2 4.76 4+ 3.03
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.26
4 5.24 Un 1.5 4.9
5 10.2 Ov 2.5 1.71
6+ 24.39 Un 2.5 2.42
Gg 1.74 Ov 3.5 3.03
NoG 2.35 Un 3.5 1.49


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.65 3.58 2.91
2-3 goals 1.98 4.89 3.44
4+ goals 2.17 3.4 4.07
Ov 1.5 2.05 4.14 3.68
Un 1.5 2.65 3.58 2.91
Ov 2.5 1.85 6.03 3.4
Un 2.5 2.8 2.72 3.63
Ov 3.5 2.17 3.4 4.07
Un 3.5 2.14 4.4 3.26
Goal-Goal 2.38 2.99 4.07
No Goal 1.91 7.46 2.93
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.99 4.94 3.4
NG+Un 2.5 2.16 7.46 2.8



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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