Hoffenheim Vs RB Leipzig

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4 4.12 1.79 1.5 2.55
Estim 2.11 3.85 3.76 1.81 2.23
Value % 22.39 1.7 -29.27 -11.42 5.63



Basic Data and latest results


Hoffenheim basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 4 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 1 2
At Home 3 1 1 67 4 3 3 2




Hoffenheim latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Bochum A 0 2 L U Ng
29 Oct Hertha H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Bayern Munich A 0 4 L O Ng
15 Oct FC Koln H 5 0 W O Ng
02 Oct Stuttgart A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Wolfsburg H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bielefeld A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Mainz H 0 2 L U Ng



RB Leipzig basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 6 4 4 2
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 3 2 20 3 5 0 5




RB Leipzig latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Dortmund H 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Ein Frankfurt A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Greuther Furth H 4 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Freiburg A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Bochum H 3 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Hertha H 6 0 W O Ng
18 Sep FC Koln A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Bayern Munich H 1 4 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Hoffenheim is -0.037 and for the RB Leipzig is 0.784.
  • The home dynamic for the Hoffenheim is 0.402 and the dynamic as a guest for the RB Leipzig is -0.291.
  • The offensive ability for the Hoffenheim is -0.07 and for the RB Leipzig is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Hoffenheim is -0.202 and for the RB Leipzig is -0.33.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Hoffenheim 18% 31% 28% 23%
RB Leipzig 27% 41% 20% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.11 goals and RB Leipzig to score 2.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.14 goals in the game and the guest team RB Leipzig to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.55 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Hoffenheim to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 20.41 0-1 4.81
1 6.29 2-3 2.01
2 4.18 4+ 3.44
3 3.86 Ov 1.5 1.27
4 5.38 Un 1.5 4.81
5 12.82 Ov 2.5 1.82
6+ 37.04 Un 2.5 2.24
Gg 1.68 Ov 3.5 3.44
NoG 2.49 Un 3.5 1.42


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.51 4.24 2.74
2-3 goals 1.98 3.89 4.18
4+ goals 2.09 3.55 4.16
Ov 1.5 2.02 3.76 4.17
Un 1.5 2.51 4.24 2.74
Ov 2.5 1.75 6.71 3.59
Un 2.5 2.83 2.53 3.99
Ov 3.5 2.09 3.55 4.16
Un 3.5 2.11 3.99 3.62
Goal-Goal 2.34 2.83 4.54
No Goal 1.84 8.2 3
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.84 5.7 3.56
NG+Un 2.5 2.02 8.2 2.85



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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