Huesca Vs Ibiza

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Huesca and Ibiza for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.07 3.14 3.8 2.41 1.58
Estim 2.32 3.55 3.48 2.4 1.72
Value % -5.21 -3.68 2.42 0.17 -5.15



Basic Data and latest results


Huesca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 4 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 0 3
At Home 2 3 3 38 5 4 2 6




Huesca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
13 Nov Mirandes A 1 0 W U Ng
05 Nov Leganes H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Nov Ponferradina A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Amorebieta H 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Burgos A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Malaga H 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Girona A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Oct Zaragoza A 0 0 D U Ng



Ibiza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 3 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 1 1 0 3
At Away 3 3 2 50 7 5 3 5




Ibiza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
14 Nov Almeria H 0 1 L U Ng
07 Nov Sociedad B A 1 0 W U Ng
04 Nov Tenerife H 0 0 D U Ng
01 Nov Alcorcon A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Fuenlabrada H 3 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Valladolid A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Mirandes H 0 2 L U Ng
10 Oct Cartagena A 1 5 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Huesca is -0.133 and for the Ibiza is 0.4.
  • The home dynamic for the Huesca is -0.124 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ibiza is 0.057.
  • The offensive ability for the Huesca is 0.07 and for the Ibiza is 0.119.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Huesca is -0.227 and for the Ibiza is 0.217.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Huesca 26% 35% 25% 14%
Ibiza 36% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.29 goals and Ibiza to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Huesca to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.26 goals and Ibiza to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.75 0-1 3.17
1 4.5 2-3 2.01
2 3.73 4+ 5.32
3 4.35 Ov 1.5 1.46
4 7.81 Un 1.5 3.17
5 20.83 Ov 2.5 2.39
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.72
Gg 2.1 Ov 3.5 5.32
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.52 3.39 3.25
2-3 goals 2.18 3.86 3.53
4+ goals 2.41 3.13 3.76
Ov 1.5 2.24 3.63 3.59
Un 1.5 2.52 3.39 3.25
Ov 2.5 1.92 6.97 2.99
Un 2.5 2.74 2.63 3.94
Ov 3.5 2.41 3.13 3.76
Un 3.5 2.3 3.66 3.42
Goal-Goal 2.82 2.52 4.03
No Goal 2 5.65 3.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.05 5.78 2.94
NG+Un 2.5 2.13 5.65 3.07



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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