Hull Vs Birmingham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Hull and Birmingham for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.59 3.18 2.82 2.3 1.63
Estim 2.53 3.51 3.13 2.39 1.72
Value % 0.92 -2.96 -3.51 -1.64 -3.21



Basic Data and latest results


Hull basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 2 5 1 5
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 2 0 3
At Home 1 2 5 21 4 6 3 5




Hull latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Barnsley A 2 0 W U Ng
03 Nov West Brom A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Coventry H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Luton A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Oct Peterboro H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Huddersfield A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Middlesbrough H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Sep Blackpool H 1 1 D U Gg



Birmingham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 2 1
At Away 3 2 3 46 4 4 2 6




Birmingham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Reading H 1 2 L O Gg
02 Nov Bristol City H 3 0 W O Ng
30 Oct Middlesbrough A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Swansea H 2 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Huddersfield A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Oct West Brom A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Nott’m Forest H 0 3 L O Ng
28 Sep QPR A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Hull is -0.607 and for the Birmingham is 0.28.
  • The home dynamic for the Hull is -0.283 and the dynamic as a guest for the Birmingham is -0.155.
  • The offensive ability for the Hull is -0.893 and for the Birmingham is 0.322.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Hull is -0.545 and for the Birmingham is 0.191.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Hull 30% 37% 15% 17%
Birmingham 37% 34% 16% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hull to score 1.14 goals and Birmingham to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hull to score 1.2 goals and Birmingham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 8.93 0-1 2.84
1 4.17 2-3 2.25
2 4.37 4+ 4.88
3 4.65 Ov 1.5 1.54
4 7.52 Un 1.5 2.84
5 20.83 Ov 2.5 2.38
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 1.72
Gg 2.27 Ov 3.5 4.88
NoG 1.78 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.53 3.14 3.49
2-3 goals 2.57 3.55 3.04
4+ goals 2.41 4.27 2.85
Ov 1.5 2.52 3.75 2.98
Un 1.5 2.53 3.14 3.49
Ov 2.5 2.09 8.75 2.46
Un 2.5 2.96 2.45 3.93
Ov 3.5 2.41 4.27 2.85
Un 3.5 2.55 3.36 3.22
Goal-Goal 3.21 2.54 3.38
No Goal 2.16 5.01 2.97
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.3 6.56 2.42
NG+Un 2.5 2.33 5.01 3.08



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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