Inter Vs Napoli

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Inter and Napoli for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.27 3.46 3.25 1.75 2.08
Estim 2.36 3.91 3.11 1.89 2.12
Value % -1.68 -3.33 1.39 -4.23 -0.91



Basic Data and latest results


Inter basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Home 3 2 0 73 5 3 3 2




Inter latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Milan A 1 1 D U Gg
31 Oct Udinese H 2 0 W U Ng
27 Oct Empoli A 2 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Juventus H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Lazio A 1 3 L O Gg
02 Oct Sassuolo A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Atalanta H 2 2 D O Gg
21 Sep Fiorentina A 3 1 W O Gg



Napoli basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 5 2 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 1 2
At Away 5 1 0 89 5 2 4 2




Napoli latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Verona H 1 1 D U Gg
31 Oct Salernitana A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Oct Bologna H 3 0 W O Ng
24 Oct Roma A 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Torino H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Fiorentina A 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Cagliari H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Sampdoria A 4 0 W O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Inter is 0.348 and for the Napoli is 0.776.
  • The home dynamic for the Inter is 0.53 and the dynamic as a guest for the Napoli is 0.887.
  • The offensive ability for the Inter is 1 and for the Napoli is 0.621.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Inter is -0.167 and for the Napoli is 0.565.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Inter 26% 24% 33% 17%
Napoli 30% 34% 22% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Inter to score 1.53 goals and Napoli to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Inter to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Inter to score 1.41 goals and Napoli to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.99 0-1 4.24
1 6.29 2-3 2.06
2 4.26 4+ 3.62
3 3.98 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 6.06 Un 1.5 4.24
5 11.63 Ov 2.5 1.9
6+ 40 Un 2.5 2.12
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.62
NoG 2.09 Un 3.5 1.39


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.28 3.06 2.71
2-3 goals 1.9 6 3.26
4+ goals 2.94 2.85 3.25
Ov 1.5 2.18 4.28 3.26
Un 1.5 3.28 3.06 2.71
Ov 2.5 2.08 5.43 2.98
Un 2.5 2.79 2.98 3.27
Ov 3.5 2.94 2.85 3.25
Un 3.5 2.2 4.57 3.06
Goal-Goal 2.56 2.92 3.76
No Goal 2.19 6.22 2.62
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.16 4.52 3.17
NG+Un 2.5 2.31 6.22 2.71



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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