Lamia Vs Panathinaikos

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lamia and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.78 3.2 2.03 2.43 1.55
Estim 2.65 3.42 3.02 2.24 1.81
Value % 11.28 -2.01 -16.15 3.49 -9.27



Basic Data and latest results


Lamia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 4 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 1 2
At Home 0 2 2 17 3 4 3 1




Lamia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Asteras Tripolis A 1 0 W U Ng
31 Oct Atromitos H 2 2 D O Gg
24 Oct OFI Crete A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Oct Aris H 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Ionikos A 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Panetolikos H 2 2 D O Gg
22 Sep AEK A 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep Olympiakos H 1 2 L O Gg



Panathinaikos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 4 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 2 2 1
At Away 0 1 3 8 1 3 1 3




Panathinaikos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov PAOK H 1 3 L O Gg
31 Oct OFI Crete H 0 0 D U Ng
23 Oct Asteras Tripolis A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Ionikos H 4 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Olympiakos A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Volos NFC H 5 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Aris A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Giannina A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lamia is 0.185 and for the Panathinaikos is 0.
  • The home dynamic for the Lamia is -0.554 and the dynamic as a guest for the Panathinaikos is -0.638.
  • The offensive ability for the Lamia is 0.037 and for the Panathinaikos is 0.207.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lamia is -0.142 and for the Panathinaikos is -0.217.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lamia 20% 46% 27% 7%
Panathinaikos 31% 32% 29% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lamia to score 0.83 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the guest team Panathinaikos to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.22 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.13 0-1 3.77
1 4.93 2-3 1.83
2 3.48 4+ 5.29
3 3.88 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 7.14 Un 1.5 3.77
5 23.26 Ov 2.5 2.24
6+ 166.67 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 1.81 Ov 3.5 5.29
NoG 2.24 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.89 4.27 4.21
2-3 goals 2.84 3.78 2.61
4+ goals 4.3 2.2 3.2
Ov 1.5 3.11 3.19 2.74
Un 1.5 1.89 4.27 4.21
Ov 2.5 2.94 5.2 2.14
Un 2.5 2.46 2.68 4.52
Ov 3.5 4.3 2.2 3.2
Un 3.5 2.44 3.93 2.98
Goal-Goal 4.25 2.4 2.87
No Goal 1.81 7.19 3.23
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.15 4.76 2.12
NG+Un 2.5 1.82 7.19 3.34



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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