Leicester Vs Chelsea

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Leicester and Chelsea for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 4.71 3.76 1.79 1.99 1.88
Estim 5.88 4.59 1.63 1.83 2.21
Value % -4.22 -4.81 5.48 4.39 -7.94



Basic Data and latest results


Leicester basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 6 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Home 2 1 2 47 3 4 2 3




Leicester latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Leeds A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Arsenal H 0 2 L U Ng
24 Oct Brentford A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Man United H 4 2 W O Gg
03 Oct Crystal Palace A 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Burnley H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Sep Brighton A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Man City H 0 1 L U Ng



Chelsea basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 3 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 2 1
At Away 4 1 0 87 5 1 2 3




Chelsea latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Burnley H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Newcastle A 3 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Norwich H 7 0 W O Ng
16 Oct Brentford A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Southampton H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Man City H 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep Tottenham A 3 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Aston Villa H 3 0 W O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Leicester is 0.148 and for the Chelsea is 0.656.
  • The home dynamic for the Leicester is -0.108 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chelsea is 0.857.
  • The offensive ability for the Leicester is 0.465 and for the Chelsea is 0.674.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Leicester is -1 and for the Chelsea is 0.217.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Leicester 44% 25% 28% 3%
Chelsea 12% 30% 29% 29%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 0.83 goals and Chelsea to score 1.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 0.9 goals and Chelsea to score 1.74 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 18.52 0-1 4.61
1 6.13 2-3 1.91
2 4.24 4+ 3.85
3 3.48 Ov 1.5 1.28
4 6.17 Un 1.5 4.61
5 11.24 Ov 2.5 1.83
6+ 111.11 Un 2.5 2.21
Gg 2.03 Ov 3.5 3.85
NoG 1.97 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 7 4.02 1.64
2-3 goals 4.32 6.88 1.6
4+ goals 14.44 2.95 1.69
Ov 1.5 5.63 4.77 1.63
Un 1.5 7 4.02 1.64
Ov 2.5 5.21 6.22 1.55
Un 2.5 6.97 3.48 1.76
Ov 3.5 14.44 2.95 1.69
Un 3.5 4.87 5.69 1.62
Goal-Goal 4.87 3 2.17
No Goal 7.36 9.41 1.32
G-G+Ov 2.5 4.12 4.73 1.83
NG+Un 2.5 5.8 9.41 1.46



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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