Leverkusen Vs Bochum

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Bochum for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.39 5.14 7.9 1.54 2.52
Estim 1.7 4.33 5.56 1.78 2.29
Value % -13.12 3.64 5.33 -8.76 3.99



Basic Data and latest results


Leverkusen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 4 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Home 2 0 3 40 4 3 3 2




Leverkusen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
07 Nov Hertha A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Wolfsburg H 0 2 L U Ng
24 Oct FC Koln A 2 2 D O Gg
17 Oct Bayern Munich H 1 5 L O Gg
03 Oct Bielefeld A 4 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Mainz H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Stuttgart A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Dortmund H 3 4 L O Gg



Bochum basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 2 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 1 2
At Away 1 0 5 17 3 5 4 2




Bochum latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
06 Nov Hoffenheim H 2 0 W U Ng
31 Oct M’gladbach A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Ein Frankfurt H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Greuther Furth A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct RB Leipzig A 0 3 L O Ng
26 Sep Stuttgart H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Bayern Munich A 0 7 L O Ng
12 Sep Hertha H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Leverkusen is -0.059 and for the Bochum is 0.296.
  • The home dynamic for the Leverkusen is -0.347 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bochum is -0.585.
  • The offensive ability for the Leverkusen is 0.465 and for the Bochum is 0.322.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Leverkusen is -0.339 and for the Bochum is 0.565.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Leverkusen 13% 27% 31% 28%
Bochum 35% 40% 17% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 2.42 goals and Bochum to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.09 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 1.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.74 goals and Bochum to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 21.28 0-1 5.08
1 6.67 2-3 1.92
2 4.17 4+ 3.55
3 3.56 Ov 1.5 1.25
4 5.35 Un 1.5 5.08
5 13.7 Ov 2.5 1.78
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 2.29
Gg 1.79 Ov 3.5 3.55
NoG 2.27 Un 3.5 1.39


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.03 4.19 3.72
2-3 goals 1.57 4.82 6.43
4+ goals 1.75 3.76 6.13
Ov 1.5 1.63 4.39 6.32
Un 1.5 2.03 4.19 3.72
Ov 2.5 1.47 7.51 5.41
Un 2.5 2.12 2.82 5.75
Ov 3.5 1.75 3.76 6.13
Un 3.5 1.67 4.63 5.36
Goal-Goal 1.98 3.05 6.01
No Goal 1.44 9.38 5.07
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.59 6.01 4.85
NG+Un 2.5 1.6 9.38 4.33



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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